Premarket plan
8:15 AM ET
🌅 Premarket — Tue, Nov 3
ES -0.52% · NQ -1.42% · RTY -0.12% · VIX 21.5
$SPY 750.94 (-0.16%) R 751.60 / S 750.31
QQQ 683.07 (+0.28%) R 683.99 / S 681.13
IWM 279.01 (-0.05%) R 279.16 / S 278.39
Read: Mixed (avg +0.02%)
Market report
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
The Hub's call
Made at 9:00 AM ET, after the 8:30 data
BEARISH· medium confidenceScored at the close.
Election day volatility and tech weakness dominate; defensive rotation persists.
Conflicting signals: defensive trend and weak tech versus resilient sector breadth and election-day uncertainty.
The market remains in a defensive posture as tech continues to lag and yields rise. Expect choppy price action around the 10:16 AM ET election window, with indices likely testing support levels early. Focus on sector leaders in Staples and Healthcare while avoiding tech breakouts.
Macro read: Rising 10Y and 5Y yields pressure long-duration tech, while gold strength indicates a flight to safety. Crude oil weakness hurts energy, though VIX remains elevated.
The plan
If / then, and the levels it hangs on
- IfSPY holds above 747.85 → Look for a move toward the 755.85 pivot.
- IfQQQ fails to reclaim 686.95 → Expect a test of 674.47 support.
| Index | Support | Pivot | Resistance | Prior low | Prior high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 747.85 | 755.85 | 760.11 | 751.60 | 763.86 |
| QQQ | 674.47 | 686.95 | 693.57 | 680.33 | 699.43 |
| IWM | 277.62 | 280.40 | 281.93 | 278.88 | 283.19 |
Where money is moving
The Hub's sector and industry rotation ranks
Rotation favors Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utilities — Consumer Staples leads at +10.9%/month with rank accelerating (↑3 this week). Key risk: Technology deteriorating (-12.7%/month).
- ▼Energy (XLE) left the top 3 → #8 (was #1)
- ▲Healthcare (XLV) entered the top 3 → #2 (was #6)
- ▲Consumer Staples (XLP) entered the top 3 → #1 (was #4)
- ▼Consumer Discretionary (XLY) left the top 3 → #5 (was #3)
Tailwinds
- Consumer Staples — Leading sector with accelerating momentum and relative strength.
- Healthcare — Strong momentum and recently entered the top 3 sector rankings.
- Materials — Strong momentum and recently entered the top 3 sector rankings.
Headwinds
- Technology — Lagging sector with significant monthly distribution.
- Tech breakouts — Tech is in a distribution phase and prone to failing.
- Earnings-day tickers — High volatility often leads to false signals.
Leaders inside the leading groups
Consumer Staples (XLP) — PM (RS 83, +11.5% 1M) · KO (RS 82, +11.0% 1M)
RS: relative strength against the market, 1–99.
Market regime
Trend state at the close
SPY
Recovery
1M −2.9% · below its 50-day (−1.6%)
QQQ
Bear Trend
1M −9.4% · below its 50-day (−4.8%)
IWM
Recovery
1M −1.2% · below its 50-day (−0.9%)
DIA
Recovery
1M +0.9% · below its 50-day (−0.7%)
Breadth: 9 of 11 sectors above their 200-day average.
Track record
Last 24 scored calls
75%
18 of 24 calls right
Bullish / bearish: 8/10
Neutral / choppy: 10/14
How it's scored: bullish is right when SPY closes up, bearish when it closes down, neutral or choppy when SPY closes within ±0.5%. Every call is shown, misses included.
Market breadth
Mixed2,417 US stocks · as of 11:07 AM ET55% of stocks above their 50-day, 60% of movers up today, 60% of 52-week extremes are highs.
New highs vs new lows (52-week)39 / 2660%
Advancers vs decliners1,428 / 96560%
Up vs down from the open1,519 / 87663%
Up vs down on above-average volume (for the time of day)328 / 18564%
Up 4%+ vs down 4%+310 / 5884%
Above 20-day
64%
Above 50-day
55%
Above 200-day
54%
Stages (from the 50 and 200-day)
Basing 24%Advancing 31%Topping 20%Declining 25%
% above the 50-day, last 2 sessions
Sector scoreboard
ranked by 1-month return · this week alongside · the rotation map1 week
- 1Consumer Staples+3.2%
- 2Healthcare+2.7%
- 3Utilities+2.0%
- 4Materials+3.3%
- 5Consumer Discretionary+2.5%
- 6Real Estate+2.7%
- 7Financials+2.5%
- 8Energy−2.3%
- 9Industrials+1.6%
- 10Communication Services−3.1%
- 11Technology−7.4%
1 month (the ranking)
- 1Consumer Staples+10.9%
- 2Healthcare+9.9%
- 3Utilities+9.3%
- 4Materials+8.1%
- 5Consumer Discretionary+7.2%
- 6Real Estate+7.2%
- 7Financials+6.4%
- 8Energy+5.0%
- 9Industrials+0.3%
- 10Communication Services−10.1%
- 11Technology−12.7%
Rotation map · week against month
Today's briefing & event risk
Regime NEUTRAL: 7/11 sectors leading, 4 weakening or lagging. VIX 21.0. Premarket mixed (avg +0.13%).
Key risk: Watch VIX for a spike above 25. · Options focus: SPY at-the-money options for directional exposure with defined risk.
- 11-03 10:16 AM ETCongressional Elections
- 11-06 8:30 AM ETAverage Hourly Earnings m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.1%)
- 11-06 8:30 AM ETNon-Farm Employment Change (forecast 65K, prior 29K)
- 11-06 8:30 AM ETUnemployment Rate (forecast 4.2%, prior 4.2%)
Next 4 weeks · Nov 3–Dec 1up 14/19 yrs · avg +1.8%
Today to Dec 31up 13/19 yrs · avg +1.7%
Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample
+3% 2010
+2% 2014
+2% 2022
Long bonds (TLT) +6.0% over 20 days — yields falling ↓
The full rotation report
Trend: SHORT / DEFENSIVEVIX 21.03 · ELEVATED (20–25)· 9/11 sectors above 200 EMA
Rotation favors Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utilities — Consumer Staples leads at +10.9%/month with rank accelerating (↑3 this week). Key risk: Technology deteriorating (-12.7%/month).
Prefer debit spreads; buy closer to ATM to limit premium
| Market regime | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | vs 50D | vs 200D | vs 21W | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | $752.52 | +0.06% | -2.2% | -2.9% | -2.4% | -1.6% | +1.9% | -0.2% | Recovery |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQ | $685.21 | +0.60% | -5.0% | -9.4% | -5.3% | -4.8% | -0.9% | -3.0% | Bear Trend |
| Russell 2000 IWM | $279.94 | +0.29% | -0.1% | -1.2% | -7.2% | -0.9% | +0.5% | -1.2% | Recovery |
| Dow Jones DIA | $516.93 | -0.46% | -1.2% | +0.9% | -4.3% | -0.7% | +1.5% | -0.2% | Recovery |
| ARK Innovation ARKK | $79.13 | +0.22% | -6.7% | -14.7% | +3.1% | -6.2% | -2.8% | -3.5% | Bear Trend |
Rotation alerts & money flow
- ▼ Left top 3Energy (XLE) left the top 3#1→#8
- ▲ Top 3 entryHealthcare (XLV) entered the top 3#6→#2
- ▲ Top 3 entryConsumer Staples (XLP) entered the top 3#4→#1
- ▼ Left top 3Consumer Discretionary (XLY) left the top 3#3→#5
- ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Consumer Staples climbed 3 rank(s) this week#4→#1
- ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Healthcare climbed 4 rank(s) this week#6→#2
- ▼ OutflowRapid outflow — Energy dropped 7 rank(s) this week#1→#8
Today's briefing & event risk
- 11-03 10:16 AM ETCongressional Elections
- 11-06 8:30 AM ETAverage Hourly Earnings m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.1%)
- 11-06 8:30 AM ETNon-Farm Employment Change (forecast 65K, prior 29K)
▶Show all 4 macro events & seasonal context
- 11-06 8:30 AM ETUnemployment Rate (forecast 4.2%, prior 4.2%)
Next 4 weeks · Nov 3–Dec 1up 14/19 yrs · avg +1.8%
Today to Dec 31up 13/19 yrs · avg +1.7%
Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample
+3% 2010
+2% 2014
+2% 2022
Long bonds (TLT) +6.0% over 20 days — yields falling ↓
Sector scoreboard & internals
ranked by 1-month return · rank change vs last week / month · top-10 holdings breadth and earnings1 week
- 1Consumer Staples+3.2%
- 2Healthcare+2.7%
- 3Utilities+2.0%
- 4Materials+3.3%
- 5Consumer Discretionary+2.5%
- 6Real Estate+2.7%
- 7Financials+2.5%
- 8Energy−2.3%
- 9Industrials+1.6%
- 10Communication Services−3.1%
- 11Technology−7.4%
1 month (the ranking)
- 1Consumer Staples+10.9%
- 2Healthcare+9.9%
- 3Utilities+9.3%
- 4Materials+8.1%
- 5Consumer Discretionary+7.2%
- 6Real Estate+7.2%
- 7Financials+6.4%
- 8Energy+5.0%
- 9Industrials+0.3%
- 10Communication Services−10.1%
- 11Technology−12.7%
Rotation map · week against month
| # | Sector | Δ wk / mo | Phase & signal | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | Rel vol | vs 200D | Breadth | Earnings | Next 4 wks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Consumer Staples XLP⚡ | ↑3 / ↑6 | MomentumLong | -1.02% | +3.2% | +10.9% | +5.3% | +6.7% | — | +7.5% | 10/10 · 10/10 | 1 reporting (Nov 5) | 10/19 yrs · +0.8% |
| 2 | Healthcare XLV⚡ | ↑4 / ↑2 | MomentumLong | -0.36% | +2.7% | +9.9% | +13.5% | +26.5% | — | +13.6% | 9/10 · 8/10 | 1 reporting (Nov 3) | 11/19 yrs · +0.8% |
| 3 | Utilities XLU | ↓1 / ↑6 | MomentumLong | +0.07% | +2.0% | +9.3% | -0.9% | -4.4% | — | +0.2% | 8/10 · 9/10 | 5 reporting (Nov 5–9) | 8/19 yrs · -0.5% |
| 4 | Materials XLB | ↑1 / ↑6 | MomentumLong | -0.32% | +3.3% | +8.1% | +2.9% | +2.1% | — | +6.7% | 7/10 · 8/10 | 2 reporting (Nov 4–5) | 9/19 yrs · +0.0% |
| 5 | Consumer Discretionary XLY | ↓2 / ↑1 | MomentumLong | +0.19% | +2.5% | +7.2% | +0.1% | -1.2% | — | +2.3% | 7/10 · 9/10 | 2 reporting (Nov 3–4) | 10/19 yrs · +0.1% |
| 6 | Real Estate XLRE | ↑2 / ↑5 | Early AccumLong | -0.09% | +2.7% | +7.2% | -3.5% | -2.5% | — | +1.3% | 8/10 · 10/10 | 1 reporting (Nov 5) | 4/10 yrs · +0.0% |
| 7 | Financials XLF | — / ↑1 | Early AccumLong | -0.44% | +2.5% | +6.4% | -1.0% | +10.6% | — | +5.1% | 6/10 · 9/10 | 1 reporting (Nov 3) | 10/19 yrs · +0.3% |
| 8 | Energy XLE⚡ | ↓7 / ↓3 | DistributionAvoid | -0.91% | -2.3% | +5.0% | +13.9% | +16.9% | — | +13.2% | 5/10 · 5/10 | 2 reporting (Nov 5) | 6/19 yrs · +0.0% |
| 9 | Industrials XLI | — / ↓6 | BottomingLong | +0.57% | +1.6% | +0.3% | -8.4% | -3.5% | — | -0.2% | 5/10 · 8/10 | 1 reporting (Nov 4) | 12/19 yrs · +0.7% |
| 10 | Communication Services XLC | ↑1 / ↓8 | DistributionAvoid | +0.13% | -3.1% | -10.1% | -10.4% | -14.4% | — | -10.2% | 4/9 · 5/9 | 2 reporting (Nov 6–9) | 4/7 yrs · -0.2% |
| 11 | Technology XLK | ↓1 / ↓10 | DistributionAvoid | +0.72% | -7.4% | -12.7% | -6.1% | +3.2% | — | +0.3% | 1/10 · 3/10 | 1 reporting (Nov 3) | 9/19 yrs · -0.6% |
As posted on X (3)+
9:00 plan
9:06 AM ET
☕ 9:00 Plan — Tue, Nov 3
$SPY 752.65 (+0.07%)
QQQ 685.27 (+0.61%)
IWM 280.01 (+0.30%)
Hub bias: BEARISH (medium confidence)
SPY R1 760.11 · S1 747.85
If SPY holds above 747.85 → Look for a move toward the 755.85 pivot.
Setups on watch
9:12 AM ET
🎯 Setups on watch — Tue, Nov 3
Market: risk off — SPY +0.07% · QQQ +0.61% premarket · 8/11 sectors up yesterday
$SPY uppercut short: under 750.60, stop 766.15
IWM uppercut short: under 278.58, stop 284.04
Educational, not advice
Get the next call by email — free