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Market report

Tuesday, October 27, 2026

← 2026-10-26All days2026-10-28 →

The Hub's call

Made at 9:00 AM ET, after the 8:30 data

BULLISH· medium confidence✓ Right — SPY closed +0.56%

Risk-on premarket shifts bias to bullish; monitor 10:00 AM data

Premarket risk-on sentiment and positive futures outweigh neutral trend and sector signals, supporting a bullish session start.

The session begins with a risk-on tone, shifting the plan from last night's neutral stance to bullish. Markets will likely test resistance levels early, but expect volatility and potential choppiness as traders position ahead of tomorrow's FOMC and major tech earnings.

Macro read: Rising yields and a stronger dollar may pressure tech, while lower crude oil prices act as a headwind for energy. VIX is lower, signaling a more stable risk environment.

The plan

If / then, and the levels it hangs on

  • IfSPY holds 762.09 support → Target 768.19 resistance.
  • IfQQQ fails to hold 706.77 → Expect a test of lower support levels.
IndexSupportPivotResistancePrior lowPrior high
SPY762.09764.91768.19761.63767.73
QQQ706.77711.01716.44705.58715.25
IWM275.74277.25278.51276.00278.77

Where money is moving

The Hub's sector and industry rotation ranks

Rotation favors Energy, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary — Energy leads at +9.8%/month. Key risk: Communication Services deteriorating (-6.8%/month).

  • ▲Utilities (XLU) entered the top 3 → #2 (was #5)
  • ▲Consumer Discretionary (XLY) entered the top 3 → #3 (was #6)
  • ▼Healthcare (XLV) left the top 3 → #6 (was #3)
  • ▼Consumer Staples (XLP) left the top 3 → #4 (was #2)

Tailwinds

  • Energy — Leading sector with strong monthly momentum.
  • Utilities — Strong relative strength and recent move into top 3.

Headwinds

  • Technology — Distribution phase and pressure from rising yields.
  • Communication Services — Bottom-ranked sector with significant monthly deterioration.
  • Early morning gaps — High probability of intraday reversals; avoid chasing.

Leaders inside the leading groups

Energy (XLE) — MPC (RS 97, +22.2% 1M) · PSX (RS 96, +14.3% 1M)
Utilities (XLU) — AEP (RS 50, +9.9% 1M)

RS: relative strength against the market, 1–99.

Market regime

Trend state at the close

SPY

Bull Trend

1M +0.5% · above its 50-day (+0.5%)

QQQ

Recovery

1M −2.1% · below its 50-day (−0.5%)

IWM

Recovery

1M +0.1% · below its 50-day (−1.0%)

DIA

Bull Trend

1M +1.8% · above its 50-day (+0.5%)

Breadth: 6 of 11 sectors above their 200-day average.

Track record

Last 20 scored calls

75%

15 of 20 calls right

Bullish / bearish: 8/10

Neutral / choppy: 7/10

How it's scored: bullish is right when SPY closes up, bearish when it closes down, neutral or choppy when SPY closes within ±0.5%. Every call is shown, misses included.

Sector scoreboard

ranked by 1-month return · this week alongside · the rotation map

1 week

  • 1Energy+0.3%
  • 2Utilities+2.3%
  • 3Consumer Discretionary−0.0%
  • 4Consumer Staples−0.7%
  • 5Materials+1.1%
  • 6Healthcare−0.4%
  • 7Financials+0.3%
  • 8Real Estate+0.1%
  • 9Industrials+0.7%
  • 10Technology+2.2%
  • 11Communication Services−6.0%

1 month (the ranking)

  • 1Energy+9.8%
  • 2Utilities+9.2%
  • 3Consumer Discretionary+5.9%
  • 4Consumer Staples+5.9%
  • 5Materials+4.7%
  • 6Healthcare+4.6%
  • 7Financials+3.1%
  • 8Real Estate+2.6%
  • 9Industrials−0.5%
  • 10Technology−2.6%
  • 11Communication Services−6.8%

Rotation map · week against month

LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekEnergy (XLE): +9.8% month, +0.3% weekXLEUtilities (XLU): +9.2% month, +2.3% weekXLUConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +5.9% month, -0.0% weekXLYConsumer Staples (XLP): +5.9% month, -0.7% weekXLPMaterials (XLB): +4.7% month, +1.1% weekXLBHealthcare (XLV): +4.6% month, -0.4% weekXLVFinancials (XLF): +3.1% month, +0.3% weekXLFReal Estate (XLRE): +2.6% month, +0.1% weekXLREIndustrials (XLI): -0.5% month, +0.7% weekXLITechnology (XLK): -2.6% month, +2.2% weekXLKCommunication Services (XLC): -6.8% month, -6.0% weekXLC

Today's briefing & event risk

Regime NEUTRAL: 3/11 sectors leading, 8 weakening or lagging. VIX 17.8. Premarket risk on (avg +0.33%).

Key risk: Watch VIX for a spike above 25. · Options focus: SPY at-the-money options for directional exposure with defined risk.

  • 10-28 2:00 PM ETFederal Funds Rate (forecast 4.00%, prior 4.00%)
  • 10-28 2:00 PM ETFOMC Statement
  • 10-28 2:30 PM ETFOMC Press Conference
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETAdvance GDP q/q (forecast 3.2%, prior 1.5%)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETCore PCE Price Index m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%)
Next 4 weeks · Oct 27–Nov 24up 12/19 yrs · avg +1.3%
Today to Dec 31up 13/19 yrs · avg +3.4%

Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

+6%
 2010
+5%
 2014
 
−7%2018
 
−2%2022

Long bonds (TLT) +4.3% over 20 days — yields falling ↓

The full rotation report

Trend: LONG BIASVIX 17.52 · MODERATE (15–20)· 6/11 sectors above 200 EMA

Rotation favors Energy, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary — Energy leads at +9.8%/month. Key risk: Communication Services deteriorating (-6.8%/month).

Outright calls/puts or debit spreads both work

Market regimePrice1D1W1M3Mvs 50Dvs 200Dvs 21WRegime
S&P 500 SPY$769.66+0.56%+0.1%+0.5%+3.9%+0.5%+4.4%+1.8%Bull Trend
Nasdaq 100 QQQ$721.25+1.27%+0.5%-2.1%+6.8%-0.5%+4.4%+1.3%Recovery
Russell 2000 IWM$280.18+1.15%+1.6%+0.1%-4.5%-1.0%+0.5%-1.2%Recovery
Dow Jones DIA$523.28+0.06%-0.2%+1.8%-0.7%+0.5%+2.9%+1.0%Bull Trend
ARK Innovation ARKK$84.78+3.59%+1.6%-5.0%+17.0%-0.1%+4.0%+2.6%Recovery

Rotation alerts & money flow

  • ▲ Top 3 entryUtilities (XLU) entered the top 3#5 → #2 of 11#5→#2
  • ▲ Top 3 entryConsumer Discretionary (XLY) entered the top 3#6 → #3 of 11#6→#3
  • ▼ Left top 3Healthcare (XLV) left the top 3#3 → #6 of 11#3→#6
  • ▼ Left top 3Consumer Staples (XLP) left the top 3#2 → #4 of 11#2→#4
  • ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Utilities climbed 3 rank(s) this week#5 → #2 of 11#5→#2
  • ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Consumer Discretionary climbed 3 rank(s) this week#6 → #3 of 11#6→#3
  • ▼ OutflowRapid outflow — Healthcare dropped 3 rank(s) this week#3 → #6 of 11#3→#6

Today's briefing & event risk

  • 10-28 2:00 PM ETFederal Funds Rate (forecast 4.00%, prior 4.00%)
  • 10-28 2:00 PM ETFOMC Statement
  • 10-28 2:30 PM ETFOMC Press Conference
▶Show all 5 macro events & seasonal context
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETAdvance GDP q/q (forecast 3.2%, prior 1.5%)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETCore PCE Price Index m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%)
Next 4 weeks · Oct 27–Nov 24up 12/19 yrs · avg +1.3%
Today to Dec 31up 13/19 yrs · avg +3.4%

Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

+6%
 2010
+5%
 2014
 
−7%2018
 
−2%2022

Long bonds (TLT) +4.3% over 20 days — yields falling ↓

Sector scoreboard & internals

ranked by 1-month return · rank change vs last week / month · top-10 holdings breadth and earnings

1 week

  • 1Energy+0.3%
  • 2Utilities+2.3%
  • 3Consumer Discretionary−0.0%
  • 4Consumer Staples−0.7%
  • 5Materials+1.1%
  • 6Healthcare−0.4%
  • 7Financials+0.3%
  • 8Real Estate+0.1%
  • 9Industrials+0.7%
  • 10Technology+2.2%
  • 11Communication Services−6.0%

1 month (the ranking)

  • 1Energy+9.8%
  • 2Utilities+9.2%
  • 3Consumer Discretionary+5.9%
  • 4Consumer Staples+5.9%
  • 5Materials+4.7%
  • 6Healthcare+4.6%
  • 7Financials+3.1%
  • 8Real Estate+2.6%
  • 9Industrials−0.5%
  • 10Technology−2.6%
  • 11Communication Services−6.8%

Rotation map · week against month

LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekEnergy (XLE): +9.8% month, +0.3% weekXLEUtilities (XLU): +9.2% month, +2.3% weekXLUConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +5.9% month, -0.0% weekXLYConsumer Staples (XLP): +5.9% month, -0.7% weekXLPMaterials (XLB): +4.7% month, +1.1% weekXLBHealthcare (XLV): +4.6% month, -0.4% weekXLVFinancials (XLF): +3.1% month, +0.3% weekXLFReal Estate (XLRE): +2.6% month, +0.1% weekXLREIndustrials (XLI): -0.5% month, +0.7% weekXLITechnology (XLK): -2.6% month, +2.2% weekXLKCommunication Services (XLC): -6.8% month, -6.0% weekXLC
#SectorΔ wk / moPhase & signal1D1W1M3M6MRel volvs 200DBreadthEarningsNext 4 wks
1Energy XLE— / ↑2MomentumLong-2.05%+0.3%+9.8%+18.5%+15.6%0.96+16.8%8/10 · 7/106 reporting (Oct 27–3)7/19 yrs · +1.2%
2Utilities XLU⚡↑3 / ↑9MomentumLong+0.71%+2.3%+9.2%-5.9%-6.2%0.5-2.0%8/10 · 8/104 reporting (Oct 28–30)6/19 yrs · -0.8%
3Consumer Discretionary XLY⚡↑3 / ↑4MomentumLong+1.04%-0.0%+5.9%+2.6%-1.2%0.83-0.1%7/10 · 5/104 reporting (Oct 28–3)10/19 yrs · +0.2%
4Consumer Staples XLP↓2 / ↑1MomentumLong-0.92%-0.7%+5.9%+0.1%+5.1%0.92+4.2%10/10 · 2/104 reporting (Oct 29–30)10/19 yrs · +0.5%
5Materials XLB↓1 / ↑4MomentumLong+0.78%+1.1%+4.7%-1.1%+1.6%1.02+3.2%6/10 · 5/102 reporting (Oct 29)7/19 yrs · +0.1%
6Healthcare XLV⚡↓3 / ↓2MomentumLong-0.06%-0.4%+4.6%+7.1%+25.4%0.9+11.3%9/10 · 5/105 reporting (Oct 28–3)9/19 yrs · +0.5%
7Financials XLF— / ↑1MomentumLong-0.25%+0.3%+3.1%-3.0%+7.6%0.72+2.5%5/10 · 7/102 reporting (Oct 29–2)10/19 yrs · -0.9%
8Real Estate XLRE— / ↑2DistributionAvoid-0.84%+0.1%+2.6%-7.8%-2.8%0.89-1.7%7/10 · 7/103 reporting (Oct 28–2)5/10 yrs · -0.7%
9Industrials XLI— / ↓3DistributionAvoid+0.57%+0.7%-0.5%-8.0%-1.2%0.84-2.0%3/10 · 7/103 reporting (Oct 28–3)15/19 yrs · +1.3%
10Technology XLK↑1 / ↓9BottomingLong+1.70%+2.2%-2.6%+10.8%+19.1%0.86+8.6%6/10 · 9/104 reporting (Oct 28–3)7/19 yrs · -0.4%
11Communication Services XLC↓1 / ↓9DistributionAvoid-0.26%-6.0%-6.8%-5.5%-10.2%1.13-8.0%1/9 · 0/92 reporting (Oct 28)3/7 yrs · +0.0%

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