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Market report

Tuesday, October 13, 2026

← 2026-10-12All days2026-10-14 →

The Hub's call

Made at 9:00 AM ET, after the 8:30 data

NEUTRAL· low confidence✓ Right — SPY closed −0.01%

Neutral bias persists as tech headwinds and weak breadth weigh on sentiment.

Weak breadth and mixed premarket action offset the underlying long-term trend, keeping the bias neutral.

Expect a choppy session as tech faces continued pressure while healthcare and energy show relative strength. Watch for consolidation around pivot levels before committing to directional moves, as the market lacks clear conviction.

Macro read: Lower yields and a weaker dollar are supportive, but tech weakness and a slightly elevated VIX suggest caution. Energy remains a bright spot while semiconductors face headwinds.

The plan

If / then, and the levels it hangs on

  • IfSPY holds 776.97 S1 → Look for a test of the 778.18 pivot.
  • IfQQQ fails 743.99 S1 → Expect further downside toward recent lows.
IndexSupportPivotResistancePrior lowPrior high
SPY776.97778.18779.31777.05779.40
QQQ743.99746.89748.94744.85749.79
IWM277.41278.28278.76277.79279.14

Where money is moving

The Hub's sector and industry rotation ranks

Rotation favors Technology, Energy, Healthcare — Technology leads at +6.5%/month. Key risk: Financials deteriorating (-3.9%/month).

  • ▼Communication Services (XLC) left the top 3 → #9 (was #2)
  • ▲Healthcare (XLV) entered the top 3 → #3 (was #5)
  • ▲Utilities (XLU) moved +4 → #4 (was #8)
  • ▼Industrials (XLI) moved -3 → #7 (was #4)

Tailwinds

  • Cybersecurity — Strong monthly performance and beating sector averages.
  • Healthcare — Strong relative strength and recent rotation into the sector.

Headwinds

  • Semiconductors — Recent weakness and negative scanner signals.
  • Financials — Deteriorating monthly performance and bottoming phase.

Market regime

Trend state at the close

SPY

Bull Trend

1M +2.3% · above its 50-day (+1.6%)

QQQ

Pullback in Bull

1M +4.8% · above its 50-day (+2.0%)

IWM

Downtrend

1M −3.9% · below its 50-day (−3.5%)

DIA

Recovery

1M −1.6% · below its 50-day (−0.7%)

Breadth: 5 of 11 sectors above their 200-day average.

Track record

Last 10 scored calls

80%

8 of 10 calls right

Bullish / bearish: 3/4

Neutral / choppy: 5/6

How it's scored: bullish is right when SPY closes up, bearish when it closes down, neutral or choppy when SPY closes within ±0.5%. Every call is shown, misses included.

Sector scoreboard

ranked by 1-month return · this week alongside · the rotation map

1 week

  • 1Technology−2.8%
  • 2Energy+5.4%
  • 3Healthcare+1.5%
  • 4Utilities+1.7%
  • 5Consumer Staples+2.9%
  • 6Consumer Discretionary+0.6%
  • 7Industrials−1.7%
  • 8Materials−0.0%
  • 9Communication Services+0.6%
  • 10Real Estate+1.8%
  • 11Financials+1.5%

1 month (the ranking)

  • 1Technology+6.5%
  • 2Energy+4.1%
  • 3Healthcare+1.1%
  • 4Utilities+0.1%
  • 5Consumer Staples−0.3%
  • 6Consumer Discretionary−0.4%
  • 7Industrials−0.7%
  • 8Materials−1.5%
  • 9Communication Services−2.4%
  • 10Real Estate−3.0%
  • 11Financials−3.9%

Rotation map · week against month

LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekTechnology (XLK): +6.5% month, -2.8% weekXLKEnergy (XLE): +4.1% month, +5.4% weekXLEHealthcare (XLV): +1.1% month, +1.5% weekXLVUtilities (XLU): +0.1% month, +1.7% weekXLUConsumer Staples (XLP): -0.3% month, +2.9% weekXLPConsumer Discretionary (XLY): -0.4% month, +0.6% weekXLYIndustrials (XLI): -0.7% month, -1.7% weekXLIMaterials (XLB): -1.5% month, -0.0% weekXLBCommunication Services (XLC): -2.4% month, +0.6% weekXLCReal Estate (XLRE): -3.0% month, +1.8% weekXLREFinancials (XLF): -3.9% month, +1.5% weekXLF

Today's briefing & event risk

Regime NEUTRAL: 6/11 sectors leading, 2 weakening or lagging. VIX 15.3. Premarket mixed (avg +0.06%).

Key risk: Watch VIX for a spike above 25. · Options focus: SPY at-the-money options for directional exposure with defined risk.

  • 10-14 8:30 AM ETCore CPI m/m (forecast 0.2%, prior 0.3%)
  • 10-14 8:30 AM ETCore CPI y/y (forecast 2.5%, prior 2.4%)
  • 10-14 8:30 AM ETCPI m/m (forecast 0.6%, prior 0.4%)
  • 10-14 8:30 AM ETCPI y/y (forecast 3.6%, prior 3.4%)
  • 10-15 8:30 AM ETCore PPI m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%)
  • 10-15 8:30 AM ETCore Retail Sales m/m (forecast 0.6%, prior 1.4%)
  • 10-15 8:30 AM ETPPI m/m (forecast 0.6%, prior 0.4%)
  • 10-15 8:30 AM ETRetail Sales m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 1.2%)
Next 4 weeks · Oct 13–Nov 10up 16/19 yrs · avg +2.5%
Today to Dec 31up 16/19 yrs · avg +3.7%

Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

+7%
 2010
+8%
 2014
 
−10%2018
+7%
 2022

Long bonds (TLT) -2.9% over 20 days — yields rising ↑

The full rotation report

Trend: LONG BIASVIX 15.27 · MODERATE (15–20)· 5/11 sectors above 200 EMA

Rotation favors Technology, Energy, Healthcare — Technology leads at +6.5%/month. Key risk: Financials deteriorating (-3.9%/month).

Outright calls/puts or debit spreads both work

Market regimePrice1D1W1M3Mvs 50Dvs 200Dvs 21WRegime
S&P 500 SPY$778.01-0.01%-0.1%+2.3%+3.5%+1.6%+6.3%+3.0%Bull Trend
Nasdaq 100 QQQ$743.57-0.33%-2.1%+4.8%+3.3%+2.0%+8.4%+4.0%Pullback in Bull
Russell 2000 IWM$276.7-0.43%-1.6%-3.9%-6.0%-3.5%-0.7%-3.1%Downtrend
Dow Jones DIA$516.21-0.33%+0.3%-1.6%-1.6%-0.7%+2.0%-0.1%Recovery
ARK Innovation ARKK$87.17-0.97%-3.7%+2.9%+9.6%+1.7%+7.5%+5.0%Pullback in Bull

Rotation alerts & money flow

  • ▼ Left top 3Communication Services (XLC) left the top 3#2 → #9 of 11#2→#9
  • ▲ Top 3 entryHealthcare (XLV) entered the top 3#5 → #3 of 11#5→#3
  • ▲ Rank upUtilities (XLU) moved +4#8 → #4 of 11#8→#4
  • ▼ Rank downIndustrials (XLI) moved -3#4 → #7 of 11#4→#7
  • ⚡ Flow surgeHidden weakness — Technology strong on the month but reversing this week
  • ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Utilities climbed 4 rank(s) this week#8 → #4 of 11#8→#4
  • ▼ OutflowRapid outflow — Industrials dropped 3 rank(s) this week#4 → #7 of 11#4→#7
  • ▼ OutflowRapid outflow — Communication Services dropped 7 rank(s) this week#2 → #9 of 11#2→#9

Today's briefing & event risk

  • 10-14 8:30 AM ETCore CPI m/m (forecast 0.2%, prior 0.3%)
  • 10-14 8:30 AM ETCore CPI y/y (forecast 2.5%, prior 2.4%)
  • 10-14 8:30 AM ETCPI m/m (forecast 0.6%, prior 0.4%)
▶Show all 8 macro events & seasonal context
  • 10-14 8:30 AM ETCPI y/y (forecast 3.6%, prior 3.4%)
  • 10-15 8:30 AM ETCore PPI m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%)
  • 10-15 8:30 AM ETCore Retail Sales m/m (forecast 0.6%, prior 1.4%)
  • 10-15 8:30 AM ETPPI m/m (forecast 0.6%, prior 0.4%)
  • 10-15 8:30 AM ETRetail Sales m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 1.2%)
Next 4 weeks · Oct 13–Nov 10up 16/19 yrs · avg +2.5%
Today to Dec 31up 16/19 yrs · avg +3.7%

Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

+7%
 2010
+8%
 2014
 
−10%2018
+7%
 2022

Long bonds (TLT) -2.9% over 20 days — yields rising ↑

Sector scoreboard & internals

ranked by 1-month return · rank change vs last week / month · top-10 holdings breadth and earnings

1 week

  • 1Technology−2.8%
  • 2Energy+5.4%
  • 3Healthcare+1.5%
  • 4Utilities+1.7%
  • 5Consumer Staples+2.9%
  • 6Consumer Discretionary+0.6%
  • 7Industrials−1.7%
  • 8Materials−0.0%
  • 9Communication Services+0.6%
  • 10Real Estate+1.8%
  • 11Financials+1.5%

1 month (the ranking)

  • 1Technology+6.5%
  • 2Energy+4.1%
  • 3Healthcare+1.1%
  • 4Utilities+0.1%
  • 5Consumer Staples−0.3%
  • 6Consumer Discretionary−0.4%
  • 7Industrials−0.7%
  • 8Materials−1.5%
  • 9Communication Services−2.4%
  • 10Real Estate−3.0%
  • 11Financials−3.9%

Rotation map · week against month

LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekTechnology (XLK): +6.5% month, -2.8% weekXLKEnergy (XLE): +4.1% month, +5.4% weekXLEHealthcare (XLV): +1.1% month, +1.5% weekXLVUtilities (XLU): +0.1% month, +1.7% weekXLUConsumer Staples (XLP): -0.3% month, +2.9% weekXLPConsumer Discretionary (XLY): -0.4% month, +0.6% weekXLYIndustrials (XLI): -0.7% month, -1.7% weekXLIMaterials (XLB): -1.5% month, -0.0% weekXLBCommunication Services (XLC): -2.4% month, +0.6% weekXLCReal Estate (XLRE): -3.0% month, +1.8% weekXLREFinancials (XLF): -3.9% month, +1.5% weekXLF
#SectorΔ wk / moPhase & signal1D1W1M3M6MRel volvs 200DBreadthEarningsNext 4 wks
1Technology XLK⚡— / ↑6Late MomentumNeutral-0.04%-2.8%+6.5%+6.9%+30.6%0.92+13.7%9/10 · 6/10—11/19 yrs · +0.0%
2Energy XLE↑1 / ↑3MomentumLong+1.80%+5.4%+4.1%+18.0%+20.5%0.82+17.3%9/10 · 9/10—9/19 yrs · +0.2%
3Healthcare XLV↑2 / ↓2MomentumLong-1.35%+1.5%+1.1%+7.2%+14.8%1.08+6.9%6/10 · 7/101 reporting (Oct 20)10/19 yrs · -0.4%
4Utilities XLU⚡↑4 / ↑7Early AccumLong+0.58%+1.7%+0.1%-8.4%-9.0%0.8-4.6%9/10 · 10/10—7/19 yrs · -0.9%
5Consumer Staples XLP↑2 / ↑3NeutralNeutral-0.26%+2.9%-0.3%+0.9%+3.9%0.95+1.3%8/10 · 10/101 reporting (Oct 20)5/19 yrs · -1.0%
6Consumer Discretionary XLY— / ↓4NeutralNeutral+0.08%+0.6%-0.4%-3.0%-4.9%0.89-2.7%5/10 · 7/10—8/19 yrs · -0.6%
7Industrials XLI⚡↓3 / ↑3NeutralNeutral-0.28%-1.7%-0.7%-6.5%-1.5%1.01-1.6%3/10 · 4/102 reporting (Oct 20)11/19 yrs · +0.8%
8Materials XLB↑1 / ↓4DistributionAvoid+0.57%-0.0%-1.5%-1.8%-3.2%0.69-0.6%7/10 · 6/10—11/19 yrs · -0.1%
9Communication Services XLC⚡↓7 / ↓6DistributionAvoid+0.74%+0.6%-2.4%+0.7%-4.3%1.07-0.5%3/9 · 4/91 reporting (Oct 20)2/7 yrs · -1.2%
10Real Estate XLRE— / ↓1BottomingLong-0.21%+1.8%-3.0%-6.0%-3.6%0.85-3.0%4/10 · 7/101 reporting (Oct 15)4/10 yrs · -0.9%
11Financials XLF— / ↓5DistributionAvoid-0.42%+1.5%-3.9%-2.4%+5.1%1.15+0.9%3/10 · 4/102 reporting (Oct 14)11/19 yrs · +0.1%

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