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Market report

Tuesday, October 20, 2026

← 2026-10-19All days2026-10-21 →

The Hub's call

Made at 9:00 AM ET, after the 8:30 data

NEUTRAL· low confidence✓ Right — SPY closed +0.34%

Market remains range-bound; focus on earnings volatility and sector relative strength.

Neutral trend, mixed sector breadth, and lack of clear directional momentum keep the bias neutral.

The market remains in a range-bound regime, necessitating a focus on individual ticker volatility around earnings. Expect choppy price action as indices test key pivots, with relative strength in Energy and Healthcare providing potential opportunities while tech remains pressured.

Macro read: Rising VIX and mixed futures suggest a cautious environment. Falling yields and a weaker dollar may provide slight support to tech, but current breadth remains a headwind.

The plan

If / then, and the levels it hangs on

  • IfSPY holds above 767.59 pivot → Look for a move toward 769.35 resistance.
  • IfQQQ fails to hold 719.83 pivot → Expect a test of 715.1 support.
IndexSupportPivotResistancePrior lowPrior high
SPY764.71767.59769.35765.82770.46
QQQ715.10719.83723.08716.57724.55
IWM270.44271.55272.39270.71272.66

Where money is moving

The Hub's sector and industry rotation ranks

Rotation favors Energy, Consumer Staples, Healthcare — Energy leads at +8.8%/month with rank accelerating (↑1 this week). Key risk: Technology deteriorating (-4.8%/month).

  • ▼Technology (XLK) left the top 3 → #11 (was #1)
  • ▲Consumer Staples (XLP) entered the top 3 → #2 (was #5)
  • ▼Communication Services (XLC) entered the bottom 3 → #10 (was #9)
  • ▲Materials (XLB) moved +4 → #4 (was #8)
  • ▲Financials (XLF) recovered from the bottom → #7 (was #11)
  • ▲Real Estate (XLRE) recovered from the bottom → #8 (was #10)

Tailwinds

  • Energy — Leading sector with accelerating momentum and positive weekly performance.
  • Consumer Staples — Entered top 3 sectors with strong momentum.
  • Healthcare — Consistent relative strength in a neutral market.

Headwinds

  • Technology — Significant drop in sector ranking and distribution phase.
  • Technology breakouts — Sector is in distribution and underperforming.
  • Chasing early morning moves — Frequent intraday reversals in choppy regimes.

Leaders inside the leading groups

Energy (XLE) — MPC (RS 98, +12.7% 1M) · PSX (RS 97, +6.7% 1M) · COP (RS 90, +9.3% 1M) · XOM (RS 88, +9.7% 1M) · CVX (RS 85, +6.3% 1M)

RS: relative strength against the market, 1–99.

Market regime

Trend state at the close

SPY

Bull Trend

1M −0.6% · above its 50-day (+0.4%)

QQQ

Recovery

1M −3.2% · below its 50-day (−1.3%)

IWM

Downtrend

1M −3.4% · below its 50-day (−2.9%)

DIA

Bull Trend

1M +0.9% · above its 50-day (+0.9%)

Breadth: 7 of 11 sectors above their 200-day average.

Track record

Last 15 scored calls

73%

11 of 15 calls right

Bullish / bearish: 4/6

Neutral / choppy: 7/9

How it's scored: bullish is right when SPY closes up, bearish when it closes down, neutral or choppy when SPY closes within ±0.5%. Every call is shown, misses included.

Sector scoreboard

ranked by 1-month return · this week alongside · the rotation map

1 week

  • 1Energy+1.1%
  • 2Consumer Staples+4.2%
  • 3Healthcare+6.0%
  • 4Materials+3.0%
  • 5Utilities+0.0%
  • 6Consumer Discretionary+2.8%
  • 7Financials+1.6%
  • 8Real Estate+1.3%
  • 9Industrials−1.1%
  • 10Communication Services−1.9%
  • 11Technology−5.5%

1 month (the ranking)

  • 1Energy+8.8%
  • 2Consumer Staples+7.1%
  • 3Healthcare+6.4%
  • 4Materials+3.1%
  • 5Utilities+3.0%
  • 6Consumer Discretionary+2.9%
  • 7Financials−0.3%
  • 8Real Estate−0.5%
  • 9Industrials−1.9%
  • 10Communication Services−4.0%
  • 11Technology−4.8%

Rotation map · week against month

LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekEnergy (XLE): +8.8% month, +1.1% weekXLEConsumer Staples (XLP): +7.1% month, +4.2% weekXLPHealthcare (XLV): +6.4% month, +6.0% weekXLVMaterials (XLB): +3.1% month, +3.0% weekXLBUtilities (XLU): +3.0% month, +0.0% weekXLUConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +2.9% month, +2.8% weekXLYFinancials (XLF): -0.3% month, +1.6% weekXLFReal Estate (XLRE): -0.5% month, +1.3% weekXLREIndustrials (XLI): -1.9% month, -1.1% weekXLICommunication Services (XLC): -4.0% month, -1.9% weekXLCTechnology (XLK): -4.8% month, -5.5% weekXLK

Today's briefing & event risk

Regime NEUTRAL: 7/11 sectors leading, 4 weakening or lagging. VIX 18.7. Premarket mixed (avg -0.09%).

Key risk: Watch VIX for a spike above 25. · Options focus: SPY at-the-money options for directional exposure with defined risk.

Next 4 weeks · Oct 20–Nov 17up 14/19 yrs · avg +1.4%
Today to Dec 31up 14/19 yrs · avg +3.0%

Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

+6%
 2010
+9%
 2014
 
−10%2018
+2%
 2022

Long bonds (TLT) -2.0% over 20 days — yields rising ↑

The full rotation report

Trend: LONG BIASVIX 17.31 · MODERATE (15–20)· 7/11 sectors above 200 EMA

Rotation favors Energy, Consumer Staples, Healthcare — Energy leads at +8.8%/month with rank accelerating (↑1 this week). Key risk: Technology deteriorating (-4.8%/month).

Outright calls/puts or debit spreads both work

Market regimePrice1D1W1M3Mvs 50Dvs 200Dvs 21WRegime
S&P 500 SPY$769.05+0.34%-1.1%-0.6%+2.8%+0.4%+4.7%+1.8%Bull Trend
Nasdaq 100 QQQ$717.63-0.10%-3.5%-3.2%+1.2%-1.3%+4.3%+0.7%Recovery
Russell 2000 IWM$275.78+1.66%-0.3%-3.4%-7.0%-2.9%-1.0%-2.9%Downtrend
Dow Jones DIA$524.36+1.05%+1.6%+0.9%+0.6%+0.9%+3.4%+1.3%Bull Trend
ARK Innovation ARKK$83.42+1.35%-4.3%-8.1%+7.4%-2.2%+2.5%+1.0%Recovery

Rotation alerts & money flow

  • ▼ Left top 3Technology (XLK) left the top 3#1 → #11 of 11#1→#11
  • ▲ Top 3 entryConsumer Staples (XLP) entered the top 3#5 → #2 of 11#5→#2
  • ▼ OutflowCommunication Services (XLC) entered the bottom 3#9 → #10 of 11#9→#10
  • ▲ Rank upMaterials (XLB) moved +4#8 → #4 of 11#8→#4
  • ▲ InflowFinancials (XLF) recovered from the bottom#11 → #7 of 11#11→#7
  • ▲ InflowReal Estate (XLRE) recovered from the bottom#10 → #8 of 11#10→#8
  • ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Consumer Staples climbed 3 rank(s) this week#5 → #2 of 11#5→#2
  • ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Materials climbed 4 rank(s) this week#8 → #4 of 11#8→#4
  • ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Financials climbed 4 rank(s) this week#11 → #7 of 11#11→#7
  • ▼ OutflowRapid outflow — Technology dropped 10 rank(s) this week#1 → #11 of 11#1→#11

Today's briefing & event risk

▶Show all 0 macro events & seasonal context
    Next 4 weeks · Oct 20–Nov 17up 14/19 yrs · avg +1.4%
    Today to Dec 31up 14/19 yrs · avg +3.0%

    Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

    +6%
     2010
    +9%
     2014
     
    −10%2018
    +2%
     2022

    Long bonds (TLT) -2.0% over 20 days — yields rising ↑

    Sector scoreboard & internals

    ranked by 1-month return · rank change vs last week / month · top-10 holdings breadth and earnings

    1 week

    • 1Energy+1.1%
    • 2Consumer Staples+4.2%
    • 3Healthcare+6.0%
    • 4Materials+3.0%
    • 5Utilities+0.0%
    • 6Consumer Discretionary+2.8%
    • 7Financials+1.6%
    • 8Real Estate+1.3%
    • 9Industrials−1.1%
    • 10Communication Services−1.9%
    • 11Technology−5.5%

    1 month (the ranking)

    • 1Energy+8.8%
    • 2Consumer Staples+7.1%
    • 3Healthcare+6.4%
    • 4Materials+3.1%
    • 5Utilities+3.0%
    • 6Consumer Discretionary+2.9%
    • 7Financials−0.3%
    • 8Real Estate−0.5%
    • 9Industrials−1.9%
    • 10Communication Services−4.0%
    • 11Technology−4.8%

    Rotation map · week against month

    LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekEnergy (XLE): +8.8% month, +1.1% weekXLEConsumer Staples (XLP): +7.1% month, +4.2% weekXLPHealthcare (XLV): +6.4% month, +6.0% weekXLVMaterials (XLB): +3.1% month, +3.0% weekXLBUtilities (XLU): +3.0% month, +0.0% weekXLUConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +2.9% month, +2.8% weekXLYFinancials (XLF): -0.3% month, +1.6% weekXLFReal Estate (XLRE): -0.5% month, +1.3% weekXLREIndustrials (XLI): -1.9% month, -1.1% weekXLICommunication Services (XLC): -4.0% month, -1.9% weekXLCTechnology (XLK): -4.8% month, -5.5% weekXLK
    #SectorΔ wk / moPhase & signal1D1W1M3M6MRel volvs 200DBreadthEarningsNext 4 wks
    1Energy XLE↑1 / ↑1MomentumLong+0.25%+1.1%+8.8%+16.2%+20.2%1.21+17.6%9/10 · 9/102 reporting (Oct 21–23)8/19 yrs · +0.1%
    2Consumer Staples XLP⚡↑3 / ↑3MomentumLong+0.62%+4.2%+7.1%+4.4%+6.9%1.22+5.1%10/10 · 9/103 reporting (Oct 21–27)9/19 yrs · -0.4%
    3Healthcare XLV— / ↑1MomentumLong+2.37%+6.0%+6.4%+12.2%+22.8%0.96+12.5%10/10 · 10/102 reporting (Oct 21)12/19 yrs · +0.1%
    4Materials XLB⚡↑4 / ↑3MomentumLong+0.55%+3.0%+3.1%+2.3%-1.2%0.96+2.3%8/10 · 8/105 reporting (Oct 22–27)10/19 yrs · -0.1%
    5Utilities XLU↓1 / ↑5MomentumLong+1.26%+0.0%+3.0%-6.8%-6.7%0.5-4.4%8/10 · 8/101 reporting (Oct 21)7/19 yrs · -0.8%
    6Consumer Discretionary XLY— / ↑2MomentumLong+0.91%+2.8%+2.9%+0.6%-2.9%1.05+0.1%10/10 · 10/101 reporting (Oct 21)10/19 yrs · -0.2%
    7Financials XLF⚡↑4 / ↓1Early AccumLong+1.20%+1.6%-0.3%-0.7%+6.7%0.55+2.5%4/10 · 5/102 reporting (Oct 23–27)9/19 yrs · -0.3%
    8Real Estate XLRE↑2 / ↑1DistributionAvoid+1.70%+1.3%-0.5%-6.2%-2.5%0.86-1.9%7/10 · 7/105 reporting (Oct 21–27)5/10 yrs · -1.0%
    9Industrials XLI↓2 / ↑2DistributionAvoid+0.07%-1.1%-1.9%-6.6%-2.5%1.28-2.6%3/10 · 5/103 reporting (Oct 22–27)11/19 yrs · +1.0%
    10Communication Services XLC↓1 / ↓7DistributionAvoid+0.09%-1.9%-4.0%+0.1%-6.5%0.7-2.4%1/9 · 6/93 reporting (Oct 21–26)2/7 yrs · -2.0%
    11Technology XLK⚡↓10 / ↓10DistributionAvoid-0.28%-5.5%-4.8%+2.6%+17.3%1.11+6.9%4/10 · 2/101 reporting (Oct 21)8/19 yrs · +0.3%

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