Market report
Tuesday, September 29, 2026
The Hub's call
Made at 9:00 AM ET, after the 8:30 data
Session opens lower with SPY below pivot
SPY opens below pivot, futures negative
Market starts lower; if SPY holds pivot, shorts could play. Economic data at 10:00 may add downward pressure.
Macro read: Yields and dollar up pressure long-duration tech. Oil up helps energy. Gold and VIX up signal risk-off.
The plan
If / then, and the levels it hangs on
- IfSPY holds 766.29 pivot → Hold shorts, look for profit targets
- IfJOLTS data beats expectations → Market may rally if data strong
| Index | Support | Pivot | Resistance | Prior low | Prior high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 763.04 | 766.29 | 768.86 | 763.72 | 769.54 |
| QQQ | 731.63 | 736.53 | 741.42 | 731.63 | 741.42 |
| IWM | 278.57 | 280.25 | 281.70 | 278.80 | 281.93 |
Where money is moving
The Hub's sector and industry rotation ranks
Rotation favors Technology, Healthcare, Communication Services — Technology leads at +4.7%/month. Key risk: Materials deteriorating (-7.7%/month).
- ▼Materials (XLB) entered the bottom 3 → #11 (was #7)
- ▲Healthcare (XLV) entered the top 3 → #2 (was #4)
- ▼Energy (XLE) left the top 3 → #4 (was #2)
- ▲Industrials (XLI) recovered from the bottom → #6 (was #11)
Tailwinds
- Technology — Rotation leads with positive momentum
- Communication Services — Sector maintains momentum from data
- Energy — Sector benefits from rotation bias
Headwinds
- Utilities — Utilities deteriorating as per rotation data
- Small caps — Yields up, dollar strength hurts them
Market regime
Trend state at the close
SPY
Bull Trend
1M −0.7% · above its 50-day (+0.4%)
QQQ
Bull Trend
1M +3.0% · above its 50-day (+2.7%)
IWM
Recovery
1M −5.7% · below its 50-day (−3.9%)
DIA
Recovery
1M −4.2% · below its 50-day (−2.0%)
Breadth: 3 of 11 sectors above their 200-day average.
Track record
Last 1 scored calls
100%
1 of 1 calls right
Bullish / bearish: 1/1
How it's scored: bullish is right when SPY closes up, bearish when it closes down, neutral or choppy when SPY closes within ±0.5%. Every call is shown, misses included.
Sector scoreboard
ranked by 1-month return · this week alongside · the rotation map1 week
- 1Technology−0.9%
- 2Healthcare+0.5%
- 3Communication Services−1.8%
- 4Energy−0.4%
- 5Consumer Staples−1.1%
- 6Industrials−0.7%
- 7Consumer Discretionary−2.8%
- 8Financials−1.4%
- 9Real Estate−2.7%
- 10Utilities−2.0%
- 11Materials−2.8%
1 month (the ranking)
- 1Technology+4.7%
- 2Healthcare−0.3%
- 3Communication Services−1.4%
- 4Energy−1.8%
- 5Consumer Staples−4.2%
- 6Industrials−4.5%
- 7Consumer Discretionary−6.9%
- 8Financials−7.0%
- 9Real Estate−7.1%
- 10Utilities−7.1%
- 11Materials−7.7%
Rotation map · week against month
Today's briefing & event risk
Regime NEUTRAL: 4/11 sectors leading, 7 weakening or lagging. VIX 15.8. Premarket mixed (avg +0.22%).
Key risk: Watch VIX for a spike above 25. · Options focus: SPY at-the-money options for directional exposure with defined risk.
The full rotation report
Rotation favors Technology, Healthcare, Communication Services — Technology leads at +4.7%/month. Key risk: Materials deteriorating (-7.7%/month).
Outright calls/puts or debit spreads both work
| Market regime | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | vs 50D | vs 200D | vs 21W | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | $764.2 | -0.18% | -1.2% | -0.7% | +3.1% | +0.4% | +5.0% | +1.9% | Bull Trend |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQ | $737.93 | +0.19% | -1.3% | +3.0% | +1.9% | +2.7% | +8.7% | +4.4% | Bull Trend |
| Russell 2000 IWM | $279.01 | -0.36% | -2.9% | -5.7% | -6.7% | -3.9% | +0.3% | -2.7% | Recovery |
| Dow Jones DIA | $512.88 | -0.22% | -1.0% | -4.2% | -1.7% | -2.0% | +1.4% | -0.9% | Recovery |
| ARK Innovation ARKK | $89.45 | +0.22% | -2.4% | +5.8% | +10.9% | +6.5% | +11.6% | +9.3% | Pullback in Bull |
Rotation alerts & money flow
- ▼ OutflowMaterials (XLB) entered the bottom 3#7→#11
- ▲ Top 3 entryHealthcare (XLV) entered the top 3#4→#2
- ▼ Left top 3Energy (XLE) left the top 3#2→#4
- ▲ InflowIndustrials (XLI) recovered from the bottom#11→#6
- ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Industrials climbed 5 rank(s) this week#11→#6
- ▼ OutflowRapid outflow — Materials dropped 4 rank(s) this week#7→#11
Sector scoreboard
ranked by 1-month return · rank change vs last week / month1 week
- 1Technology−0.9%
- 2Healthcare+0.5%
- 3Communication Services−1.8%
- 4Energy−0.4%
- 5Consumer Staples−1.1%
- 6Industrials−0.7%
- 7Consumer Discretionary−2.8%
- 8Financials−1.4%
- 9Real Estate−2.7%
- 10Utilities−2.0%
- 11Materials−2.8%
1 month (the ranking)
- 1Technology+4.7%
- 2Healthcare−0.3%
- 3Communication Services−1.4%
- 4Energy−1.8%
- 5Consumer Staples−4.2%
- 6Industrials−4.5%
- 7Consumer Discretionary−6.9%
- 8Financials−7.0%
- 9Real Estate−7.1%
- 10Utilities−7.1%
- 11Materials−7.7%
Rotation map · week against month
| # | Sector | Δ wk / mo | Phase & signal | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | Rel vol | vs 200D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Technology XLK | — / ↑6 | MomentumLong | -0.02% | -0.9% | +4.7% | +4.9% | +46.4% | 0.89 | +14.6% |
| 2 | Healthcare XLV | ↑2 / ↓1 | MomentumLong | -0.31% | +0.5% | -0.3% | +6.2% | +16.4% | 1.15 | +8.6% |
| 3 | Communication Services XLC | — / — | MomentumLong | +0.26% | -1.8% | -1.4% | +3.3% | +0.6% | 2.02 | -1.7% |
| 4 | Energy XLE | ↓2 / ↑1 | NeutralNeutral | -0.90% | -0.4% | -1.8% | +14.9% | +0.5% | 0.91 | +8.5% |
| 5 | Consumer Staples XLP | — / ↑3 | NeutralNeutral | -0.52% | -1.1% | -4.2% | -3.0% | -0.2% | 1.34 | -1.7% |
| 6 | Industrials XLI⚡ | ↑5 / ↑4 | NeutralNeutral | +0.21% | -0.7% | -4.5% | -7.5% | +4.6% | 0.86 | -1.5% |
| 7 | Consumer Discretionary XLY | ↑1 / ↓5 | NeutralNeutral | +0.14% | -2.8% | -6.9% | -6.8% | +0.2% | 1.19 | -6.0% |
| 8 | Financials XLF | ↓2 / ↓2 | DistributionAvoid | -0.33% | -1.4% | -7.0% | +0.5% | +9.4% | 1.45 | -0.9% |
| 9 | Real Estate XLRE | — / — | DistributionAvoid | -0.02% | -2.7% | -7.1% | -8.0% | +1.3% | 1.12 | -4.8% |
| 10 | Utilities XLU | — / ↑1 | DistributionAvoid | +1.17% | -2.0% | -7.1% | -13.7% | -13.5% | 1.97 | -9.8% |
| 11 | Materials XLB⚡ | ↓4 / ↓7 | DistributionAvoid | -0.75% | -2.8% | -7.7% | -3.1% | -1.7% | 1.07 | -2.1% |
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