DeepTradingHubBeta
Hub sign in

Market report

Thursday, October 22, 2026

← 2026-10-21All days2026-10-23 →

The Hub's call

Made at 9:00 AM ET, after the 8:30 data

CHOPPY· low confidence✗ Wrong — SPY closed −1.18%

Risk-off sentiment dominates as tech lags and jobless claims trigger selling.

Premarket risk-off, bearish jobless claims reaction, and tech weakness contradict the long-term trend, creating a CHOPPY environment.

The morning session is likely to chop as the market digests the stronger-than-expected jobless claims. With tech under pressure and futures lower, focus on defensive sectors while waiting for the 9:45–10:00 AM ET window to establish a clear direction.

Macro read: Rising oil prices pressure transports and airlines, while the VIX spike and futures decline signal risk-off sentiment. Lower yields provide minor relief but are currently overshadowed by broader market selling.

The plan

If / then, and the levels it hangs on

  • IfSPY fails to hold 769.51 support → Expect a drift toward lower levels as the bearish jobless claims reaction persists.
  • IfQQQ reclaims 720.62 support → Look for a potential consolidation range between 720.62 and 724.29.
IndexSupportPivotResistancePrior lowPrior high
SPY769.51771.98775.55768.40774.44
QQQ720.62724.29728.86719.71727.95
IWM275.29276.49277.69275.30277.70

Where money is moving

The Hub's sector and industry rotation ranks

Rotation favors Consumer Staples, Energy, Utilities — Consumer Staples leads at +9.2%/month with rank accelerating (↑1 this week). Key risk: Technology deteriorating (-6.7%/month).

  • ▼Technology (XLK) entered the bottom 3 → #11 (was #5)
  • ▲Utilities (XLU) entered the top 3 → #3 (was #6)
  • ▼Healthcare (XLV) left the top 3 → #4 (was #1)
  • ▼Communication Services (XLC) entered the bottom 3 → #10 (was #9)
  • ▲Financials (XLF) recovered from the bottom → #6 (was #10)
  • ▲Real Estate (XLRE) recovered from the bottom → #8 (was #11)

Tailwinds

  • Energy — Ranked #1 with accelerating momentum and rising crude oil prices.
  • Healthcare — Maintains relative strength as a defensive leader in the current regime.

Headwinds

  • Technology — Ranked #10 with distribution phase and significant premarket selling.
  • Communication Services — Lagging sector with deteriorating monthly performance.
  • Tech breakouts — Technology is in a distribution phase and prone to failing breakouts.
  • Early morning gaps — High probability of intraday reversals in a CHOPPY regime.

Leaders inside the leading groups

Energy (XLE) — MPC (RS 98, +11.7% 1M) · PSX (RS 96, +7.7% 1M) · COP (RS 87, +11.8% 1M) · XOM (RS 85, +10.6% 1M) · CVX (RS 84, +9.1% 1M)
Healthcare (XLV) — MRK (RS 89, +2.1% 1M) · LLY (RS 87, +11.0% 1M) · AMGN (RS 86, +13.6% 1M) · TMO (RS 85, +6.1% 1M) · ABBV (RS 82, +8.3% 1M)

RS: relative strength against the market, 1–99.

Market regime

Trend state at the close

SPY

Recovery

1M −0.5% · below its 50-day (−0.3%)

QQQ

Recovery

1M −5.0% · below its 50-day (−3.0%)

IWM

Downtrend

1M −1.9% · below its 50-day (−2.4%)

DIA

Bull Trend

1M +2.6% · above its 50-day (+1.4%)

Breadth: 6 of 11 sectors above their 200-day average.

Track record

Last 17 scored calls

71%

12 of 17 calls right

Bullish / bearish: 5/7

Neutral / choppy: 7/10

How it's scored: bullish is right when SPY closes up, bearish when it closes down, neutral or choppy when SPY closes within ±0.5%. Every call is shown, misses included.

Sector scoreboard

ranked by 1-month return · this week alongside · the rotation map

1 week

  • 1Consumer Staples+3.8%
  • 2Energy+1.5%
  • 3Utilities+2.9%
  • 4Healthcare+2.3%
  • 5Consumer Discretionary+1.4%
  • 6Financials+2.5%
  • 7Materials+2.2%
  • 8Real Estate+1.3%
  • 9Industrials−0.7%
  • 10Communication Services−4.5%
  • 11Technology−3.6%

1 month (the ranking)

  • 1Consumer Staples+9.2%
  • 2Energy+8.3%
  • 3Utilities+7.8%
  • 4Healthcare+7.4%
  • 5Consumer Discretionary+3.9%
  • 6Financials+3.9%
  • 7Materials+2.8%
  • 8Real Estate+1.6%
  • 9Industrials−2.0%
  • 10Communication Services−4.6%
  • 11Technology−6.7%

Rotation map · week against month

LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekConsumer Staples (XLP): +9.2% month, +3.8% weekXLPEnergy (XLE): +8.3% month, +1.5% weekXLEUtilities (XLU): +7.8% month, +2.9% weekXLUHealthcare (XLV): +7.4% month, +2.3% weekXLVConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +3.9% month, +1.4% weekXLYFinancials (XLF): +3.9% month, +2.5% weekXLFMaterials (XLB): +2.8% month, +2.2% weekXLBReal Estate (XLRE): +1.6% month, +1.3% weekXLREIndustrials (XLI): -2.0% month, -0.7% weekXLICommunication Services (XLC): -4.6% month, -4.5% weekXLCTechnology (XLK): -6.7% month, -3.6% weekXLK

Today's briefing & event risk

Regime NEUTRAL: 7/11 sectors leading, 1 weakening or lagging. VIX 18.0. Premarket risk off (avg -0.92%). Initial Jobless Claims: 194K actual vs 200K forecast, prior 200K (stronger than forecast): bearish reaction.

Key risk: Watch VIX for a spike above 25. · Options focus: SPY at-the-money options for directional exposure with defined risk.

Next 4 weeks · Oct 22–Nov 19up 13/19 yrs · avg +0.9%
Today to Dec 31up 15/19 yrs · avg +3.0%

Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

+6%
 2010
+5%
 2014
 
−10%2018
+2%
 2022

Long bonds (TLT) +2.9% over 20 days — yields falling ↓

The full rotation report

Trend: NEUTRAL / SELECTIVEVIX 19.03 · MODERATE (15–20)· 6/11 sectors above 200 EMA

Rotation favors Consumer Staples, Energy, Utilities — Consumer Staples leads at +9.2%/month with rank accelerating (↑1 this week). Key risk: Technology deteriorating (-6.7%/month).

Outright calls/puts or debit spreads both work

Market regimePrice1D1W1M3Mvs 50Dvs 200Dvs 21WRegime
S&P 500 SPY$763.96-1.18%-1.0%-0.5%+3.5%-0.3%+3.9%+1.2%Recovery
Nasdaq 100 QQQ$704.47-2.86%-3.2%-5.0%+1.8%-3.0%+2.3%-1.0%Recovery
Russell 2000 IWM$276.67+0.07%+0.6%-1.9%-5.3%-2.4%-0.6%-2.6%Downtrend
Dow Jones DIA$527.89+0.04%+1.3%+2.6%+2.3%+1.4%+3.9%+1.9%Bull Trend
ARK Innovation ARKK$81.86-4.17%-4.5%-8.8%+10.9%-3.9%+0.6%-0.7%Recovery

Rotation alerts & money flow

  • ▼ OutflowTechnology (XLK) entered the bottom 3#5 → #11 of 11#5→#11
  • ▲ Top 3 entryUtilities (XLU) entered the top 3#6 → #3 of 11#6→#3
  • ▼ Left top 3Healthcare (XLV) left the top 3#1 → #4 of 11#1→#4
  • ▼ OutflowCommunication Services (XLC) entered the bottom 3#9 → #10 of 11#9→#10
  • ▲ InflowFinancials (XLF) recovered from the bottom#10 → #6 of 11#10→#6
  • ▲ InflowReal Estate (XLRE) recovered from the bottom#11 → #8 of 11#11→#8
  • ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Utilities climbed 3 rank(s) this week#6 → #3 of 11#6→#3
  • ▼ OutflowRapid outflow — Healthcare dropped 3 rank(s) this week#1 → #4 of 11#1→#4
  • ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Financials climbed 4 rank(s) this week#10 → #6 of 11#10→#6
  • ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Real Estate climbed 3 rank(s) this week#11 → #8 of 11#11→#8
  • ▼ OutflowRapid outflow — Technology dropped 6 rank(s) this week#5 → #11 of 11#5→#11

Today's briefing & event risk

▶Show all 0 macro events & seasonal context
    Next 4 weeks · Oct 22–Nov 19up 13/19 yrs · avg +0.9%
    Today to Dec 31up 15/19 yrs · avg +3.0%

    Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

    +6%
     2010
    +5%
     2014
     
    −10%2018
    +2%
     2022

    Long bonds (TLT) +2.9% over 20 days — yields falling ↓

    Sector scoreboard & internals

    ranked by 1-month return · rank change vs last week / month · top-10 holdings breadth and earnings

    1 week

    • 1Consumer Staples+3.8%
    • 2Energy+1.5%
    • 3Utilities+2.9%
    • 4Healthcare+2.3%
    • 5Consumer Discretionary+1.4%
    • 6Financials+2.5%
    • 7Materials+2.2%
    • 8Real Estate+1.3%
    • 9Industrials−0.7%
    • 10Communication Services−4.5%
    • 11Technology−3.6%

    1 month (the ranking)

    • 1Consumer Staples+9.2%
    • 2Energy+8.3%
    • 3Utilities+7.8%
    • 4Healthcare+7.4%
    • 5Consumer Discretionary+3.9%
    • 6Financials+3.9%
    • 7Materials+2.8%
    • 8Real Estate+1.6%
    • 9Industrials−2.0%
    • 10Communication Services−4.6%
    • 11Technology−6.7%

    Rotation map · week against month

    LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekConsumer Staples (XLP): +9.2% month, +3.8% weekXLPEnergy (XLE): +8.3% month, +1.5% weekXLEUtilities (XLU): +7.8% month, +2.9% weekXLUHealthcare (XLV): +7.4% month, +2.3% weekXLVConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +3.9% month, +1.4% weekXLYFinancials (XLF): +3.9% month, +2.5% weekXLFMaterials (XLB): +2.8% month, +2.2% weekXLBReal Estate (XLRE): +1.6% month, +1.3% weekXLREIndustrials (XLI): -2.0% month, -0.7% weekXLICommunication Services (XLC): -4.6% month, -4.5% weekXLCTechnology (XLK): -6.7% month, -3.6% weekXLK
    #SectorΔ wk / moPhase & signal1D1W1M3M6MRel volvs 200DBreadthEarningsNext 4 wks
    1Consumer Staples XLP↑1 / ↑4MomentumLong+3.31%+3.8%+9.2%+8.2%+8.1%1.68+7.7%10/10 · 9/104 reporting (Oct 27–29)10/19 yrs · +0.3%
    2Energy XLE↑1 / —MomentumLong-0.87%+1.5%+8.3%+13.8%+18.8%1.29+16.5%8/10 · 7/102 reporting (Oct 23–28)7/19 yrs · +0.0%
    3Utilities XLU⚡↑3 / ↑7MomentumLong+2.07%+2.9%+7.8%-7.2%-7.2%0.81-2.0%8/10 · 8/102 reporting (Oct 28–29)7/19 yrs · -0.5%
    4Healthcare XLV⚡↓3 / —MomentumLong+1.32%+2.3%+7.4%+12.3%+25.8%1.18+13.1%10/10 · 6/103 reporting (Oct 28–29)11/19 yrs · +0.2%
    5Consumer Discretionary XLY↓1 / ↑3MomentumLong-0.45%+1.4%+3.9%+5.8%-3.1%1.12-0.5%8/10 · 9/103 reporting (Oct 28–29)10/19 yrs · +0.1%
    6Financials XLF⚡↑4 / —MomentumLong+1.09%+2.5%+3.9%+1.5%+10.2%0.89+4.1%5/10 · 10/103 reporting (Oct 23–29)10/19 yrs · -0.7%
    7Materials XLB— / —MomentumLong+0.72%+2.2%+2.8%+2.8%-0.4%0.84+3.2%8/10 · 9/106 reporting (Oct 26–29)9/19 yrs · +0.2%
    8Real Estate XLRE⚡↑3 / ↑1DistributionAvoid+1.09%+1.3%+1.6%-5.4%-3.0%1.37-1.5%6/10 · 7/105 reporting (Oct 26–29)5/10 yrs · -0.5%
    9Industrials XLI↓1 / ↑2DistributionAvoid-0.94%-0.7%-2.0%-8.4%-3.3%1.41-2.7%3/10 · 5/103 reporting (Oct 27–29)12/19 yrs · +1.0%
    10Communication Services XLC↓1 / ↓7DistributionAvoid-1.42%-4.5%-4.6%+1.9%-7.0%0.93-4.8%3/9 · 4/93 reporting (Oct 26–28)3/7 yrs · -1.3%
    11Technology XLK⚡↓6 / ↓10DistributionAvoid-3.29%-3.6%-6.7%+2.2%+13.8%1.37+4.9%4/10 · 4/101 reporting (Oct 28)9/19 yrs · +0.1%

    Get the next call by email — free