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Market report

Monday, October 26, 2026

← 2026-10-23All days2026-10-27 →

The Hub's call

Made at 9:00 AM ET, after the 8:30 data

BULLISH· medium confidence✓ Right — SPY closed +0.71%

Bullish bias as premarket risk-on sentiment counters tech distribution

Premarket risk-on sentiment and sector strength outweigh neutral trend and futures volatility.

The session starts with a risk-on tone, shifting the previous neutral plan to bullish. Focus on Energy and Utilities for relative strength while monitoring tech for potential intraday reversals.

Macro read: Stable yields and a lower VIX support a risk-on environment. Lower crude oil prices may pressure energy, but the sector remains a top leader.

The plan

If / then, and the levels it hangs on

  • IfSPY holds 757.94 support → Look for a move toward 762.73 resistance.
  • IfQQQ fails to hold 700.61 → Expect a test of lower support levels as tech distribution continues.
IndexSupportPivotResistancePrior lowPrior high
SPY757.94760.71762.73758.68763.47
QQQ700.61704.95708.75701.16709.30
IWM273.98275.11276.88273.35276.24

Where money is moving

The Hub's sector and industry rotation ranks

Rotation favors Energy, Utilities, Consumer Staples — Energy leads at +12.3%/month. Key risk: Communication Services deteriorating (-8.1%/month).

  • ▲Utilities (XLU) entered the top 3 → #2 (was #6)
  • ▼Communication Services (XLC) entered the bottom 3 → #11 (was #7)
  • ▼Healthcare (XLV) left the top 3 → #4 (was #3)
  • ▲Real Estate (XLRE) recovered from the bottom → #7 (was #11)

Tailwinds

  • Energy — Continues to lead with strong momentum and relative strength.
  • Utilities — Moved into the top 3 sectors with consistent momentum.

Headwinds

  • Software — Tech distribution persists despite broader market strength.
  • Communication Services — Deteriorating sector rank and negative monthly performance.
  • Tech breakouts — Tech remains in a distribution phase and prone to failure.
  • Early morning gaps — Intraday reversals are frequent; wait for 9:45-10:00 range.

Leaders inside the leading groups

Energy (XLE) — MPC (RS 98, +16.3% 1M) · PSX (RS 96, +9.3% 1M)
Utilities (XLU) — AEP (RS 49, +8.2% 1M) · D (RS 47, +4.8% 1M)

RS: relative strength against the market, 1–99.

Market regime

Trend state at the close

SPY

Recovery

1M −0.8% · below its 50-day (−0.1%)

QQQ

Recovery

1M −4.3% · below its 50-day (−1.7%)

IWM

Downtrend

1M −1.8% · below its 50-day (−2.1%)

DIA

Bull Trend

1M +1.1% · above its 50-day (+0.5%)

Breadth: 6 of 11 sectors above their 200-day average.

Track record

Last 19 scored calls

74%

14 of 19 calls right

Bullish / bearish: 7/9

Neutral / choppy: 7/10

How it's scored: bullish is right when SPY closes up, bearish when it closes down, neutral or choppy when SPY closes within ±0.5%. Every call is shown, misses included.

Sector scoreboard

ranked by 1-month return · this week alongside · the rotation map

1 week

  • 1Energy+2.7%
  • 2Utilities+2.9%
  • 3Consumer Staples+0.9%
  • 4Healthcare+2.1%
  • 5Consumer Discretionary−0.2%
  • 6Materials+0.8%
  • 7Real Estate+2.7%
  • 8Financials+1.7%
  • 9Industrials+0.2%
  • 10Technology+0.2%
  • 11Communication Services−5.7%

1 month (the ranking)

  • 1Energy+12.3%
  • 2Utilities+7.7%
  • 3Consumer Staples+7.2%
  • 4Healthcare+5.0%
  • 5Consumer Discretionary+3.4%
  • 6Materials+3.2%
  • 7Real Estate+3.0%
  • 8Financials+2.1%
  • 9Industrials−2.0%
  • 10Technology−5.1%
  • 11Communication Services−8.1%

Rotation map · week against month

LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekEnergy (XLE): +12.3% month, +2.7% weekXLEUtilities (XLU): +7.7% month, +2.9% weekXLUConsumer Staples (XLP): +7.2% month, +0.9% weekXLPHealthcare (XLV): +5.0% month, +2.1% weekXLVConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +3.4% month, -0.2% weekXLYMaterials (XLB): +3.2% month, +0.8% weekXLBReal Estate (XLRE): +3.0% month, +2.7% weekXLREFinancials (XLF): +2.1% month, +1.7% weekXLFIndustrials (XLI): -2.0% month, +0.2% weekXLITechnology (XLK): -5.1% month, +0.2% weekXLKCommunication Services (XLC): -8.1% month, -5.7% weekXLC

Today's briefing & event risk

Regime BULL: 7/11 sectors leading, 4 weakening or lagging. VIX 19.2. Premarket risk on (avg +0.36%).

Key risk: Watch VIX for a spike above 25. · Options focus: SPY at-the-money options for directional exposure with defined risk.

  • 10-28 2:00 PM ETFederal Funds Rate (forecast 4.00%, prior 4.00%)
  • 10-28 2:00 PM ETFOMC Statement
  • 10-28 2:30 PM ETFOMC Press Conference
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETAdvance GDP q/q (forecast 3.2%, prior 1.5%)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETCore PCE Price Index m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%)
Next 4 weeks · Oct 26–Nov 23up 12/19 yrs · avg +0.6%
Today to Dec 31up 13/19 yrs · avg +2.8%

Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

+6%
 2010
+5%
 2014
 
−7%2018
 
−2%2022

Long bonds (TLT) +3.9% over 20 days — yields falling ↓

The full rotation report

Trend: NEUTRAL / SELECTIVEVIX 18.39 · MODERATE (15–20)· 6/11 sectors above 200 EMA

Rotation favors Energy, Utilities, Consumer Staples — Energy leads at +12.3%/month. Key risk: Communication Services deteriorating (-8.1%/month).

Outright calls/puts or debit spreads both work

Market regimePrice1D1W1M3Mvs 50Dvs 200Dvs 21WRegime
S&P 500 SPY$765.37+0.71%-0.1%-0.8%+3.6%-0.1%+3.9%+1.3%Recovery
Nasdaq 100 QQQ$712.2+1.11%-0.9%-4.3%+4.4%-1.7%+3.1%+0.1%Recovery
Russell 2000 IWM$276.99+0.45%+2.1%-1.8%-5.4%-2.1%-0.6%-2.3%Downtrend
Dow Jones DIA$522.97+0.31%+0.8%+1.1%+0.3%+0.5%+2.8%+0.9%Bull Trend
ARK Innovation ARKK$81.84-0.18%-0.6%-9.8%+12.8%-3.6%+0.4%-0.7%Recovery

Rotation alerts & money flow

  • ▲ Top 3 entryUtilities (XLU) entered the top 3#6 → #2 of 11#6→#2
  • ▼ OutflowCommunication Services (XLC) entered the bottom 3#7 → #11 of 11#7→#11
  • ▼ Left top 3Healthcare (XLV) left the top 3#3 → #4 of 11#3→#4
  • ▲ InflowReal Estate (XLRE) recovered from the bottom#11 → #7 of 11#11→#7
  • ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Utilities climbed 4 rank(s) this week#6 → #2 of 11#6→#2
  • ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Real Estate climbed 4 rank(s) this week#11 → #7 of 11#11→#7
  • ▼ OutflowRapid outflow — Communication Services dropped 4 rank(s) this week#7 → #11 of 11#7→#11

Today's briefing & event risk

  • 10-28 2:00 PM ETFederal Funds Rate (forecast 4.00%, prior 4.00%)
  • 10-28 2:00 PM ETFOMC Statement
  • 10-28 2:30 PM ETFOMC Press Conference
▶Show all 5 macro events & seasonal context
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETAdvance GDP q/q (forecast 3.2%, prior 1.5%)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETCore PCE Price Index m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%)
Next 4 weeks · Oct 26–Nov 23up 12/19 yrs · avg +0.6%
Today to Dec 31up 13/19 yrs · avg +2.8%

Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

+6%
 2010
+5%
 2014
 
−7%2018
 
−2%2022

Long bonds (TLT) +3.9% over 20 days — yields falling ↓

Sector scoreboard & internals

ranked by 1-month return · rank change vs last week / month · top-10 holdings breadth and earnings

1 week

  • 1Energy+2.7%
  • 2Utilities+2.9%
  • 3Consumer Staples+0.9%
  • 4Healthcare+2.1%
  • 5Consumer Discretionary−0.2%
  • 6Materials+0.8%
  • 7Real Estate+2.7%
  • 8Financials+1.7%
  • 9Industrials+0.2%
  • 10Technology+0.2%
  • 11Communication Services−5.7%

1 month (the ranking)

  • 1Energy+12.3%
  • 2Utilities+7.7%
  • 3Consumer Staples+7.2%
  • 4Healthcare+5.0%
  • 5Consumer Discretionary+3.4%
  • 6Materials+3.2%
  • 7Real Estate+3.0%
  • 8Financials+2.1%
  • 9Industrials−2.0%
  • 10Technology−5.1%
  • 11Communication Services−8.1%

Rotation map · week against month

LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekEnergy (XLE): +12.3% month, +2.7% weekXLEUtilities (XLU): +7.7% month, +2.9% weekXLUConsumer Staples (XLP): +7.2% month, +0.9% weekXLPHealthcare (XLV): +5.0% month, +2.1% weekXLVConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +3.4% month, -0.2% weekXLYMaterials (XLB): +3.2% month, +0.8% weekXLBReal Estate (XLRE): +3.0% month, +2.7% weekXLREFinancials (XLF): +2.1% month, +1.7% weekXLFIndustrials (XLI): -2.0% month, +0.2% weekXLITechnology (XLK): -5.1% month, +0.2% weekXLKCommunication Services (XLC): -8.1% month, -5.7% weekXLC
#SectorΔ wk / moPhase & signal1D1W1M3M6MRel volvs 200DBreadthEarningsNext 4 wks
1Energy XLE— / ↑1MomentumLong+0.45%+2.7%+12.3%+19.3%+20.7%1.01+19.5%10/10 · 7/105 reporting (Oct 27–2)7/19 yrs · +0.6%
2Utilities XLU⚡↑4 / ↑8MomentumLong-0.02%+2.9%+7.7%-6.8%-8.0%0.4-2.7%8/10 · 8/104 reporting (Oct 28–30)6/19 yrs · -0.6%
3Consumer Staples XLP↓1 / ↑2MomentumLong-0.34%+0.9%+7.2%+3.0%+5.9%0.96+5.2%10/10 · 8/105 reporting (Oct 27–30)11/19 yrs · +0.7%
4Healthcare XLV↓1 / —MomentumLong+0.00%+2.1%+5.0%+9.7%+24.6%0.89+11.5%9/10 · 8/104 reporting (Oct 28–30)9/19 yrs · +0.7%
5Consumer Discretionary XLY↓1 / ↑3MomentumLong+1.03%-0.2%+3.4%+3.1%-2.4%0.93-1.1%8/10 · 7/103 reporting (Oct 28–29)11/19 yrs · +0.1%
6Materials XLB↓1 / ↑1MomentumLong+0.14%+0.8%+3.2%-0.0%-0.0%0.84+2.5%7/10 · 6/106 reporting (Oct 26–29)8/19 yrs · +0.0%
7Real Estate XLRE⚡↑4 / ↑2Early AccumLong+0.54%+2.7%+3.0%-6.5%-2.5%1.15-0.9%6/10 · 7/104 reporting (Oct 27–2)6/10 yrs · -0.3%
8Financials XLF— / ↓2BottomingLong+0.21%+1.7%+2.1%-1.5%+8.0%0.65+2.8%5/10 · 6/103 reporting (Oct 27–2)10/19 yrs · -1.0%
9Industrials XLI— / ↑2DistributionAvoid+1.42%+0.2%-2.0%-8.9%-2.4%0.88-2.5%3/10 · 3/103 reporting (Oct 27–29)15/19 yrs · +1.2%
10Technology XLK— / ↓9DistributionAvoid+1.69%+0.2%-5.1%+6.9%+18.0%0.83+6.8%6/10 · 6/103 reporting (Oct 28–2)8/19 yrs · -0.4%
11Communication Services XLC⚡↓4 / ↓8DistributionAvoid-1.57%-5.7%-8.1%-3.5%-10.3%1.39-7.9%1/9 · 1/92 reporting (Oct 28)4/7 yrs · +0.0%

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