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Market report

Thursday, October 29, 2026

← 2026-10-28All days

The Hub's call

Made at 9:00 AM ET, after the 8:30 data

NEUTRAL· low confidence✓ Right — SPY closed −0.38%

Neutral bias as mixed economic data and earnings volatility create uncertainty.

Mixed economic releases and futures weakness offset the long-term trend, necessitating a cautious, neutral approach.

The 8:30 AM economic data was mixed, with stronger-than-forecast GDP Growth and Jobless Claims offset by weaker Personal Income and Spending. This has led to a choppy premarket environment, requiring a wait-and-see approach until the 9:45 AM–10:00 AM range is established. Expect volatility around earnings-heavy names like AMZN and INTC.

Macro read: Yields are lower, which typically supports tech, but the dollar is up and futures are negative, signaling caution. The VIX remains elevated, suggesting a defensive posture.

The plan

If / then, and the levels it hangs on

  • IfSPY holds 769.91 → Look for a move toward 774.03 resistance.
  • IfQQQ fails to hold 721.89 → Expect a test of lower support levels.
IndexSupportPivotResistancePrior lowPrior high
SPY769.91771.64774.03769.24773.36
QQQ721.89724.02727.73720.30726.14
IWM279.73280.61282.16279.05281.48

Where money is moving

The Hub's sector and industry rotation ranks

Rotation favors Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities — Energy leads at +11.7%/month with rank accelerating (↑1 this week). Key risk: Communication Services deteriorating (-8.8%/month).

Tailwinds

  • Energy — Ranked #1 in rotation with strong momentum.
  • Utilities — Strong momentum and recently moved into top 3 rotation.

Headwinds

  • Technology — Ranked #10 in rotation with distribution phase.
  • Communication Services — Ranked #11 in rotation with significant deterioration.

Leaders inside the leading groups

Energy (XLE) — MPC (RS 96, +11.3% 1M) · PSX (RS 94, +6.4% 1M)

RS: relative strength against the market, 1–99.

Market regime

Trend state at the close

SPY

Bull Trend

1M +0.9% · above its 50-day (+0.4%)

QQQ

Recovery

1M −3.3% · below its 50-day (−1.2%)

IWM

Bull Trend

1M +2.2% · above its 50-day (+0.4%)

DIA

Bull Trend

1M +2.8% · above its 50-day (+0.3%)

Breadth: 7 of 11 sectors above their 200-day average.

Track record

Last 22 scored calls

77%

17 of 22 calls right

Bullish / bearish: 8/10

Neutral / choppy: 9/12

How it's scored: bullish is right when SPY closes up, bearish when it closes down, neutral or choppy when SPY closes within ±0.5%. Every call is shown, misses included.

Sector scoreboard

ranked by 1-month return · this week alongside · the rotation map

1 week

  • 1Energy+1.7%
  • 2Consumer Staples−2.0%
  • 3Utilities+0.6%
  • 4Healthcare+1.5%
  • 5Materials+1.6%
  • 6Consumer Discretionary+1.0%
  • 7Financials+0.5%
  • 8Real Estate+1.3%
  • 9Industrials+2.0%
  • 10Technology+3.5%
  • 11Communication Services−5.8%

1 month (the ranking)

  • 1Energy+11.7%
  • 2Consumer Staples+9.4%
  • 3Utilities+9.4%
  • 4Healthcare+9.3%
  • 5Materials+7.9%
  • 6Consumer Discretionary+6.8%
  • 7Financials+6.6%
  • 8Real Estate+5.3%
  • 9Industrials+1.9%
  • 10Technology−3.6%
  • 11Communication Services−8.8%

Rotation map · week against month

LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekEnergy (XLE): +11.7% month, +1.7% weekXLEConsumer Staples (XLP): +9.4% month, -2.0% weekXLPUtilities (XLU): +9.4% month, +0.6% weekXLUHealthcare (XLV): +9.3% month, +1.5% weekXLVMaterials (XLB): +7.9% month, +1.6% weekXLBConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +6.8% month, +1.0% weekXLYFinancials (XLF): +6.6% month, +0.5% weekXLFReal Estate (XLRE): +5.3% month, +1.3% weekXLREIndustrials (XLI): +1.9% month, +2.0% weekXLITechnology (XLK): -3.6% month, +3.5% weekXLKCommunication Services (XLC): -8.8% month, -5.8% weekXLC

Today's briefing & event risk

Regime NEUTRAL: 7/11 sectors leading, 4 weakening or lagging. VIX 17.0. Premarket risk off (avg -0.41%). GDP Price Index QoQ Adv: 2.2% actual vs 3.2% forecast, prior 6.1% (cool): bearish reaction.

Key risk: Watch VIX for a spike above 25. · Options focus: SPY at-the-money options for directional exposure with defined risk.

  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETGDP Price Index QoQ Adv: 2.2% actual vs 3.2% forecast, prior 6.1% (cool)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETInitial Jobless Claims: 194K actual vs 199K forecast, prior 195K (stronger than forecast)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETPCE Price Index YoY: 3.6% actual vs 3.6% forecast, prior 3.4% (in line)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETPCE Price Index MoM: 0.5% actual vs 0.5% forecast, prior 0.3% (in line)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETGDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv: 3.4% actual vs 3.2% forecast, prior 2.2% (stronger than forecast)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETPersonal Income MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast, prior 0.3% (weaker than forecast)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETPersonal Spending MoM: 0.5% actual vs 0.6% forecast, prior 0.9% (weaker than forecast)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETCore PCE Price Index MoM: 0.3% actual vs 0.3% forecast, prior 0.3% (in line)
Next 4 weeks · Oct 29–Nov 26up 13/19 yrs · avg +1.5%
Today to Dec 31up 12/19 yrs · avg +2.6%

Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

+6%
 2010
+2%
 2014
 
−7%2018
 
−2%2022

Long bonds (TLT) +4.9% over 20 days — yields falling ↓

The full rotation report

Trend: LONG BIAS· 7/11 sectors above 200 EMA

Rotation favors Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities — Energy leads at +11.7%/month with rank accelerating (↑1 this week). Key risk: Communication Services deteriorating (-8.8%/month).

Market regimePrice1D1W1M3Mvs 50Dvs 200Dvs 21WRegime
S&P 500 SPY$769.36-0.38%+0.7%+0.9%+3.7%+0.4%+4.2%+1.8%Bull Trend
Nasdaq 100 QQQ$715.34-1.42%+1.5%-3.3%+4.7%-1.2%+3.4%+0.5%Recovery
Russell 2000 IWM$284.01+0.97%+2.6%+2.2%-2.9%+0.4%+1.9%+0.0%Bull Trend
Dow Jones DIA$522.73-0.37%-1.0%+2.8%+0.2%+0.3%+2.7%+0.9%Bull Trend
ARK Innovation ARKK$85.97-0.17%+5.0%-3.5%+17.9%+1.2%+5.4%+3.9%Bull Trend

Today's briefing & event risk

  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETGDP Price Index QoQ Adv: 2.2% actual vs 3.2% forecast, prior 6.1% (cool)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETInitial Jobless Claims: 194K actual vs 199K forecast, prior 195K (stronger than forecast)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETPCE Price Index YoY: 3.6% actual vs 3.6% forecast, prior 3.4% (in line)
▶Show all 8 macro events & seasonal context
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETPCE Price Index MoM: 0.5% actual vs 0.5% forecast, prior 0.3% (in line)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETGDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv: 3.4% actual vs 3.2% forecast, prior 2.2% (stronger than forecast)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETPersonal Income MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast, prior 0.3% (weaker than forecast)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETPersonal Spending MoM: 0.5% actual vs 0.6% forecast, prior 0.9% (weaker than forecast)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETCore PCE Price Index MoM: 0.3% actual vs 0.3% forecast, prior 0.3% (in line)
Next 4 weeks · Oct 29–Nov 26up 13/19 yrs · avg +1.5%
Today to Dec 31up 12/19 yrs · avg +2.6%

Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

+6%
 2010
+2%
 2014
 
−7%2018
 
−2%2022

Long bonds (TLT) +4.9% over 20 days — yields falling ↓

Sector scoreboard & internals

ranked by 1-month return · rank change vs last week / month · top-10 holdings breadth and earnings

1 week

  • 1Energy+1.7%
  • 2Consumer Staples−2.0%
  • 3Utilities+0.6%
  • 4Healthcare+1.5%
  • 5Materials+1.6%
  • 6Consumer Discretionary+1.0%
  • 7Financials+0.5%
  • 8Real Estate+1.3%
  • 9Industrials+2.0%
  • 10Technology+3.5%
  • 11Communication Services−5.8%

1 month (the ranking)

  • 1Energy+11.7%
  • 2Consumer Staples+9.4%
  • 3Utilities+9.4%
  • 4Healthcare+9.3%
  • 5Materials+7.9%
  • 6Consumer Discretionary+6.8%
  • 7Financials+6.6%
  • 8Real Estate+5.3%
  • 9Industrials+1.9%
  • 10Technology−3.6%
  • 11Communication Services−8.8%

Rotation map · week against month

LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekEnergy (XLE): +11.7% month, +1.7% weekXLEConsumer Staples (XLP): +9.4% month, -2.0% weekXLPUtilities (XLU): +9.4% month, +0.6% weekXLUHealthcare (XLV): +9.3% month, +1.5% weekXLVMaterials (XLB): +7.9% month, +1.6% weekXLBConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +6.8% month, +1.0% weekXLYFinancials (XLF): +6.6% month, +0.5% weekXLFReal Estate (XLRE): +5.3% month, +1.3% weekXLREIndustrials (XLI): +1.9% month, +2.0% weekXLITechnology (XLK): -3.6% month, +3.5% weekXLKCommunication Services (XLC): -8.8% month, -5.8% weekXLC
#SectorΔ wk / moPhase & signal1D1W1M3M6MRel volvs 200DBreadthEarningsNext 4 wks
1Energy XLE↑1 / ↑3MomentumLong+0.38%+1.7%+11.7%+16.5%+16.8%0.8+17.4%8/10 · 7/106 reporting (Oct 30–5)7/19 yrs · -0.1%
2Consumer Staples XLP↓1 / ↑3MomentumLong+1.54%-2.0%+9.4%+3.2%+4.8%1.06+5.4%10/10 · 3/102 reporting (Oct 29–30)10/19 yrs · +0.7%
3Utilities XLU— / ↑7MomentumLong+1.53%+0.6%+9.4%-3.4%-7.3%0.83-1.2%8/10 · 8/105 reporting (Oct 30–5)8/19 yrs · -0.7%
4Healthcare XLV— / ↓2MomentumLong+2.40%+1.5%+9.3%+12.6%+26.8%1.71+14.1%9/10 · 7/102 reporting (Oct 30–3)10/19 yrs · +0.4%
5Materials XLB↑2 / ↑6MomentumLong+1.29%+1.6%+7.9%+1.7%+2.3%1.38+4.6%7/10 · 5/102 reporting (Nov 4–5)8/19 yrs · +0.3%
6Consumer Discretionary XLY↓1 / ↑1MomentumLong+0.75%+1.0%+6.8%+3.4%-2.0%0.9+0.5%7/10 · 6/102 reporting (Nov 3–4)11/19 yrs · +0.3%
7Financials XLF↓1 / ↑1MomentumLong+1.44%+0.5%+6.6%-0.1%+9.7%1.01+4.4%9/10 · 7/101 reporting (Nov 2)11/19 yrs · -0.3%
8Real Estate XLRE— / ↑1DistributionAvoid+2.21%+1.3%+5.3%-4.9%-2.8%0.83-0.1%8/10 · 8/102 reporting (Nov 2–5)6/10 yrs · +0.1%
9Industrials XLI— / ↓3BottomingLong+0.97%+2.0%+1.9%-4.6%-1.6%1.04-0.6%5/10 · 6/102 reporting (Nov 3–4)13/19 yrs · +1.0%
10Technology XLK↑1 / ↓9BottomingLong-1.18%+3.5%-3.6%+7.4%+16.6%0.85+7.9%7/10 · 6/103 reporting (Nov 2–3)7/19 yrs · -0.4%
11Communication Services XLC↓1 / ↓8DistributionAvoid-1.87%-5.8%-8.8%-5.0%-13.3%1.58-9.9%1/9 · 1/9—4/7 yrs · -0.3%
As posted on X (5)+

Premarket plan

1:12 PM ET

🌅 Premarket — Thu, Oct 29

SPY 768.83 (-0.45%) R 769.24 QQQ 714.66 (-1.49%) R 715.55 IWM 284.30 (+1.08%) / S 282.63 Read: Mixed (avg -0.29%) Today: 8:30 Jobless claims, 8:30 GDP, 8:30 PCE inflation · Earnings $AMZN, LLY, MA, INTC
Premarket plan card 1

9:00 plan

9:43 AM ET

☕ 9:00 Plan — Thu, Oct 29

8:30 GDP Price Index QoQ Adv: 2.2% vs 3.2% est (cool) Since: SPY -0.25% · QQQ -0.70% (bearish) SPY 767.92 (-0.57%) QQQ 712.75 (-1.75%) IWM 283.53 (+0.80%) Hub bias: NEUTRAL (low confidence)
9:00 plan card 1

Close recap

4:26 PM ET

🔔 Close — Thu, Oct 29

SPY -0.36% · QQQ -1.40% · IWM +0.97% VIX 17.1 (+1.4%) Leaders: Healthcare +2.4%, Real Estate +2.2% Laggards: Comm. -1.9%, Technology -1.2% Sectors up: 9/11 Morning read: Mixed Tomorrow: $XOM, ABBV
Close recap card 1

Divergence watch

4:31 PM ET

👀 Divergence — Thu, Oct 29

$GOOGL -12.86% while SPY -0.36% · QQQ -1.40% Moved against SPY 3 of the last 10 sessions 20-day correlation to QQQ: 0.51 Also: LLY +6.53%
Divergence watch card 1

Money flow

11:47 PM ET

🔄 Money flow — Thu, Oct 29

In: Materials #5 (+2 wk), Energy #1 (+1 wk) Out: Comm. Svcs #11 (-1 wk), Cons. Discretionary #6 (-1 wk) Leader: Energy #1, +11.7% this month
Money flow card 1

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