DeepTradingHubBeta
Hub sign in

Market report

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

← 2026-10-20All days2026-10-22 →

The Hub's call

Made at 9:00 AM ET, after the 8:30 data

BULLISH· medium confidence✓ Right — SPY closed +0.53%

Bullish bias holds as premarket risk-on sentiment supports a test of resistance.

Strong trend, 64% market breadth, and positive premarket sentiment confirm the bullish bias despite tech weakness.

The premarket confirms last night's plan with a risk-on tone. We expect a test of resistance levels as the market digests earnings from META and TSLA. We will prioritize strength in Energy and Healthcare while monitoring tech volatility.

Macro read: Lower yields and a weaker dollar provide a tailwind for equities. VIX remains moderate, suggesting a stable environment for potential breakouts.

The plan

If / then, and the levels it hangs on

  • IfSPY holds above 768.53 pivot → Target 772.81 resistance.
  • IfQQQ fails to hold 716.92 pivot → Expect a test of 711.1 support.
IndexSupportPivotResistancePrior lowPrior high
SPY764.77768.53772.81764.25772.29
QQQ711.10716.92723.45710.39722.75
IWM272.41274.66278.02271.29276.90

Where money is moving

The Hub's sector and industry rotation ranks

Rotation favors Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Staples — Energy leads at +10.3%/month with rank accelerating (↑3 this week). Key risk: Communication Services deteriorating (-4.0%/month).

  • ▼Technology (XLK) left the top 3 → #10 (was #2)
  • ▲Energy (XLE) entered the top 3 → #1 (was #4)
  • ▼Communication Services (XLC) entered the bottom 3 → #11 (was #9)
  • ▲Financials (XLF) recovered from the bottom → #6 (was #11)
  • ▲Real Estate (XLRE) recovered from the bottom → #8 (was #10)

Tailwinds

  • Energy — Ranked #1 with accelerating momentum and strong relative strength.
  • Healthcare — Ranked #3 with consistent momentum and strong relative strength.

Headwinds

  • Technology — Ranked #11 with distribution phase and deteriorating monthly performance.
  • Technology breakouts — Sector is in a distribution phase and underperforming.
  • Chasing early morning moves — Frequent intraday reversals in this regime require patience.

Leaders inside the leading groups

Energy (XLE) — MPC (RS 98, +13.0% 1M) · PSX (RS 96, +6.9% 1M) · COP (RS 89, +9.9% 1M) · XOM (RS 86, +9.5% 1M) · CVX (RS 85, +6.9% 1M)
Healthcare (XLV) — MRK (RS 90, +0.8% 1M) · TMO (RS 88, +4.7% 1M) · LLY (RS 88, +11.6% 1M) · AMGN (RS 86, +16.0% 1M) · ABBV (RS 83, +9.8% 1M)

RS: relative strength against the market, 1–99.

Market regime

Trend state at the close

SPY

Bull Trend

1M −0.0% · above its 50-day (+0.9%)

QQQ

Recovery

1M −3.0% · below its 50-day (−0.3%)

IWM

Downtrend

1M −3.7% · below its 50-day (−2.6%)

DIA

Bull Trend

1M +1.9% · above its 50-day (+1.5%)

Breadth: 7 of 11 sectors above their 200-day average.

Track record

Last 16 scored calls

75%

12 of 16 calls right

Bullish / bearish: 5/7

Neutral / choppy: 7/9

How it's scored: bullish is right when SPY closes up, bearish when it closes down, neutral or choppy when SPY closes within ±0.5%. Every call is shown, misses included.

Sector scoreboard

ranked by 1-month return · this week alongside · the rotation map

1 week

  • 1Energy+0.8%
  • 2Healthcare+2.9%
  • 3Consumer Staples+1.2%
  • 4Utilities+0.7%
  • 5Consumer Discretionary+3.6%
  • 6Financials+2.8%
  • 7Materials+3.3%
  • 8Real Estate+1.4%
  • 9Industrials+0.8%
  • 10Technology−1.0%
  • 11Communication Services−1.7%

1 month (the ranking)

  • 1Energy+10.3%
  • 2Healthcare+5.3%
  • 3Consumer Staples+5.3%
  • 4Utilities+3.6%
  • 5Consumer Discretionary+2.9%
  • 6Financials+2.3%
  • 7Materials+1.6%
  • 8Real Estate−1.0%
  • 9Industrials−1.1%
  • 10Technology−3.9%
  • 11Communication Services−4.0%

Rotation map · week against month

LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekEnergy (XLE): +10.3% month, +0.8% weekXLEHealthcare (XLV): +5.3% month, +2.9% weekXLVConsumer Staples (XLP): +5.3% month, +1.2% weekXLPUtilities (XLU): +3.6% month, +0.7% weekXLUConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +2.9% month, +3.6% weekXLYFinancials (XLF): +2.3% month, +2.8% weekXLFMaterials (XLB): +1.6% month, +3.3% weekXLBReal Estate (XLRE): -1.0% month, +1.4% weekXLREIndustrials (XLI): -1.1% month, +0.8% weekXLITechnology (XLK): -3.9% month, -1.0% weekXLKCommunication Services (XLC): -4.0% month, -1.7% weekXLC

Today's briefing & event risk

Regime NEUTRAL: 3/11 sectors leading, 7 weakening or lagging. VIX 17.2. Premarket risk on (avg +0.45%).

Key risk: Watch VIX for a spike above 25. · Options focus: SPY at-the-money options for directional exposure with defined risk.

Next 4 weeks · Oct 21–Nov 18up 13/19 yrs · avg +0.9%
Today to Dec 31up 15/19 yrs · avg +3.0%

Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

+6%
 2010
+5%
 2014
 
−10%2018
+2%
 2022

Long bonds (TLT) -0.3% over 20 days — yields rising ↑

The full rotation report

Trend: LONG BIASVIX 16.68 · MODERATE (15–20)· 7/11 sectors above 200 EMA

Rotation favors Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Staples — Energy leads at +10.3%/month with rank accelerating (↑3 this week). Key risk: Communication Services deteriorating (-4.0%/month).

Outright calls/puts or debit spreads both work

Market regimePrice1D1W1M3Mvs 50Dvs 200Dvs 21WRegime
S&P 500 SPY$773.09+0.53%+0.5%-0.0%+3.4%+0.9%+5.2%+2.3%Bull Trend
Nasdaq 100 QQQ$725.2+1.05%-0.5%-3.0%+2.8%-0.3%+5.3%+1.7%Recovery
Russell 2000 IWM$276.48+0.25%+1.9%-3.7%-5.9%-2.6%-0.8%-2.7%Downtrend
Dow Jones DIA$527.7+0.64%+2.3%+1.9%+1.2%+1.5%+4.0%+1.8%Bull Trend
ARK Innovation ARKK$85.42+2.40%+1.1%-6.8%+12.3%+0.2%+4.9%+3.2%Bull Trend

Rotation alerts & money flow

  • ▼ Left top 3Technology (XLK) left the top 3#2 → #10 of 11#2→#10
  • ▲ Top 3 entryEnergy (XLE) entered the top 3#4 → #1 of 11#4→#1
  • ▼ OutflowCommunication Services (XLC) entered the bottom 3#9 → #11 of 11#9→#11
  • ▲ InflowFinancials (XLF) recovered from the bottom#11 → #6 of 11#11→#6
  • ▲ InflowReal Estate (XLRE) recovered from the bottom#10 → #8 of 11#10→#8
  • ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Energy climbed 3 rank(s) this week#4 → #1 of 11#4→#1
  • ▲ InflowMoney flow surge — Financials climbed 5 rank(s) this week#11 → #6 of 11#11→#6
  • ▼ OutflowRapid outflow — Technology dropped 8 rank(s) this week#2 → #10 of 11#2→#10

Today's briefing & event risk

▶Show all 0 macro events & seasonal context
    Next 4 weeks · Oct 21–Nov 18up 13/19 yrs · avg +0.9%
    Today to Dec 31up 15/19 yrs · avg +3.0%

    Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

    +6%
     2010
    +5%
     2014
     
    −10%2018
    +2%
     2022

    Long bonds (TLT) -0.3% over 20 days — yields rising ↑

    Sector scoreboard & internals

    ranked by 1-month return · rank change vs last week / month · top-10 holdings breadth and earnings

    1 week

    • 1Energy+0.8%
    • 2Healthcare+2.9%
    • 3Consumer Staples+1.2%
    • 4Utilities+0.7%
    • 5Consumer Discretionary+3.6%
    • 6Financials+2.8%
    • 7Materials+3.3%
    • 8Real Estate+1.4%
    • 9Industrials+0.8%
    • 10Technology−1.0%
    • 11Communication Services−1.7%

    1 month (the ranking)

    • 1Energy+10.3%
    • 2Healthcare+5.3%
    • 3Consumer Staples+5.3%
    • 4Utilities+3.6%
    • 5Consumer Discretionary+2.9%
    • 6Financials+2.3%
    • 7Materials+1.6%
    • 8Real Estate−1.0%
    • 9Industrials−1.1%
    • 10Technology−3.9%
    • 11Communication Services−4.0%

    Rotation map · week against month

    LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekEnergy (XLE): +10.3% month, +0.8% weekXLEHealthcare (XLV): +5.3% month, +2.9% weekXLVConsumer Staples (XLP): +5.3% month, +1.2% weekXLPUtilities (XLU): +3.6% month, +0.7% weekXLUConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +2.9% month, +3.6% weekXLYFinancials (XLF): +2.3% month, +2.8% weekXLFMaterials (XLB): +1.6% month, +3.3% weekXLBReal Estate (XLRE): -1.0% month, +1.4% weekXLREIndustrials (XLI): -1.1% month, +0.8% weekXLITechnology (XLK): -3.9% month, -1.0% weekXLKCommunication Services (XLC): -4.0% month, -1.7% weekXLC
    #SectorΔ wk / moPhase & signal1D1W1M3M6MRel volvs 200DBreadthEarningsNext 4 wks
    1Energy XLE⚡↑3 / ↑1MomentumLong+0.28%+0.8%+10.3%+15.1%+19.6%0.83+17.7%10/10 · 6/102 reporting (Oct 23–28)8/19 yrs · +0.1%
    2Healthcare XLV↓1 / ↑2MomentumLong-0.49%+2.9%+5.3%+12.2%+22.4%1+11.8%8/10 · 9/101 reporting (Oct 28)11/19 yrs · -0.1%
    3Consumer Staples XLP— / ↑2MomentumLong-0.73%+1.2%+5.3%+3.2%+4.3%1.03+4.3%10/10 · 9/102 reporting (Oct 22–27)11/19 yrs · +0.3%
    4Utilities XLU↑1 / ↑6MomentumLong+0.29%+0.7%+3.6%-8.6%-8.9%1.03-4.1%7/10 · 6/101 reporting (Oct 28)7/19 yrs · -0.5%
    5Consumer Discretionary XLY↑1 / ↑3MomentumLong+0.03%+3.6%+2.9%+1.3%-1.9%0.92+0.1%9/10 · 10/102 reporting (Oct 21–28)11/19 yrs · +0.2%
    6Financials XLF⚡↑5 / —Early AccumLong+0.57%+2.8%+2.3%-0.0%+8.2%0.77+3.0%4/10 · 10/102 reporting (Oct 23–27)9/19 yrs · -0.9%
    7Materials XLB↑1 / —MomentumLong+0.18%+3.3%+1.6%+1.0%-0.9%0.68+2.4%7/10 · 8/105 reporting (Oct 22–27)10/19 yrs · +0.2%
    8Real Estate XLRE↑2 / ↑1DistributionAvoid-0.76%+1.4%-1.0%-6.5%-4.3%0.86-2.6%6/10 · 5/106 reporting (Oct 21–28)5/10 yrs · -0.8%
    9Industrials XLI↓2 / ↑2DistributionAvoid+0.91%+0.8%-1.1%-5.9%-3.3%0.98-1.7%4/10 · 4/104 reporting (Oct 22–28)11/19 yrs · +1.0%
    10Technology XLK⚡↓8 / ↓9DistributionAvoid+1.67%-1.0%-3.9%+4.6%+21.0%1.13+8.6%5/10 · 2/101 reporting (Oct 28)9/19 yrs · +0.3%
    11Communication Services XLC↓2 / ↓8DistributionAvoid-1.11%-1.7%-4.0%-0.2%-7.2%1.43-3.4%1/9 · 3/93 reporting (Oct 26–28)2/7 yrs · -1.4%

    Get the next call by email — free