DeepTradingHubBeta
Hub sign in

Market report

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

← 2026-10-27All days2026-10-29 →

The Hub's call

Made at 9:00 AM ET, after the 8:30 data

NEUTRAL· low confidence✓ Right — SPY closed +0.34%

Neutral bias ahead of FOMC; focus on established trends and volatility.

Mixed premarket, FOMC uncertainty, and low breadth (55%) offset the long-term trend, necessitating a cautious, neutral stance.

The session is likely to remain range-bound until the 2:00 PM FOMC rate decision. Expect choppy price action as traders navigate earnings volatility in key tech names and wait for clear direction from the Fed.

Macro read: Rising yields and oil prices create headwinds for tech and transports, while a steady dollar and moderate VIX suggest a wait-and-see market environment.

The plan

If / then, and the levels it hangs on

  • IfSPY holds 766.20 → Look for a move toward 772.13 resistance.
  • IfQQQ fails to hold 715.60 → Expect a test of lower support levels.
IndexSupportPivotResistancePrior lowPrior high
SPY766.20768.67772.13765.21771.14
QQQ715.60719.24724.88713.59722.87
IWM277.91279.16281.42276.89280.40

Where money is moving

The Hub's sector and industry rotation ranks

Rotation favors Energy, Utilities, Consumer Staples — Energy leads at +11.2%/month. Key risk: Communication Services deteriorating (-7.5%/month).

  • ▼Healthcare (XLV) left the top 3 → #6 (was #2)
  • ▲Utilities (XLU) entered the top 3 → #2 (was #4)

Tailwinds

  • Energy — Leading sector with strong momentum and oil prices up 1.48%.
  • Utilities — Strong relative strength and recent rotation into top 3.

Headwinds

  • Communication Services — Deteriorating sector performance with -6.8% monthly return.
  • Technology — Pressure from rising yields and lagging relative strength.
  • Pre-2:00 PM breakouts — Likely to be false moves before the FOMC decision.

Leaders inside the leading groups

Energy (XLE) — MPC (RS 96, +13.2% 1M) · PSX (RS 94, +6.3% 1M)

RS: relative strength against the market, 1–99.

Market regime

Trend state at the close

SPY

Bull Trend

1M +1.1% · above its 50-day (+0.8%)

QQQ

Bull Trend

1M −1.7% · above its 50-day (+0.1%)

IWM

Recovery

1M +0.8% · below its 50-day (−0.5%)

DIA

Bull Trend

1M +2.3% · above its 50-day (+0.7%)

Breadth: 6 of 11 sectors above their 200-day average.

What history says

SPY by the close, the last times this happened

  • FOMC rate decision

    Last 8: SPY moved ±0.67% on average by the close (net −0.49%), up 2 of 8. This time: +0.34%.

Track record

Last 21 scored calls

76%

16 of 21 calls right

Bullish / bearish: 8/10

Neutral / choppy: 8/11

How it's scored: bullish is right when SPY closes up, bearish when it closes down, neutral or choppy when SPY closes within ±0.5%. Every call is shown, misses included.

Sector scoreboard

ranked by 1-month return · this week alongside · the rotation map

1 week

  • 1Energy+0.4%
  • 2Utilities+1.2%
  • 3Consumer Staples−0.3%
  • 4Consumer Discretionary−0.2%
  • 5Materials+1.1%
  • 6Healthcare+0.4%
  • 7Financials+0.2%
  • 8Real Estate+0.2%
  • 9Industrials+0.1%
  • 10Technology+1.3%
  • 11Communication Services−5.3%

1 month (the ranking)

  • 1Energy+11.2%
  • 2Utilities+7.0%
  • 3Consumer Staples+6.1%
  • 4Consumer Discretionary+5.7%
  • 5Materials+5.6%
  • 6Healthcare+5.3%
  • 7Financials+3.9%
  • 8Real Estate+1.9%
  • 9Industrials−0.4%
  • 10Technology−1.8%
  • 11Communication Services−7.5%

Rotation map · week against month

LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekEnergy (XLE): +11.2% month, +0.4% weekXLEUtilities (XLU): +7.0% month, +1.2% weekXLUConsumer Staples (XLP): +6.1% month, -0.3% weekXLPConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +5.7% month, -0.2% weekXLYMaterials (XLB): +5.6% month, +1.1% weekXLBHealthcare (XLV): +5.3% month, +0.4% weekXLVFinancials (XLF): +3.9% month, +0.2% weekXLFReal Estate (XLRE): +1.9% month, +0.2% weekXLREIndustrials (XLI): -0.4% month, +0.1% weekXLITechnology (XLK): -1.8% month, +1.3% weekXLKCommunication Services (XLC): -7.5% month, -5.3% weekXLC

Today's briefing & event risk

Regime NEUTRAL: 3/11 sectors leading, 4 weakening or lagging. VIX 17.4. Premarket mixed (avg +0.16%).

Key risk: Watch VIX for a spike above 25. · Options focus: SPY at-the-money options for directional exposure with defined risk.

  • 10-28 2:00 PM ETFed Interest Rate Decision: 4% actual vs 4% forecast, prior 4% (in line)
  • 10-28 2:30 PM ETFOMC Press Conference
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETAdvance GDP q/q (forecast 3.2%, prior 1.5%)
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETCore PCE Price Index m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%)
Next 4 weeks · Oct 28–Nov 25up 13/19 yrs · avg +1.4%
Today to Dec 31up 12/19 yrs · avg +2.6%

Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

+6%
 2010
+2%
 2014
 
−7%2018
 
−2%2022

Long bonds (TLT) +4.2% over 20 days — yields falling ↓

The full rotation report

Trend: LONG BIAS· 6/11 sectors above 200 EMA

Rotation favors Energy, Utilities, Consumer Staples — Energy leads at +11.2%/month. Key risk: Communication Services deteriorating (-7.5%/month).

Market regimePrice1D1W1M3Mvs 50Dvs 200Dvs 21WRegime
S&P 500 SPY$772.31+0.34%-0.1%+1.1%+5.9%+0.8%+4.7%+2.2%Bull Trend
Nasdaq 100 QQQ$725.61+0.60%+0.1%-1.7%+9.7%+0.1%+5.0%+1.8%Bull Trend
Russell 2000 IWM$281.29+0.40%+1.7%+0.8%-2.5%-0.5%+0.9%-0.9%Recovery
Dow Jones DIA$524.68+0.27%-0.6%+2.3%+1.8%+0.7%+3.1%+1.2%Bull Trend
ARK Innovation ARKK$86.12+1.58%+0.8%-3.7%+22.0%+1.4%+5.6%+4.0%Bull Trend

Rotation alerts & money flow

  • ▼ Left top 3Healthcare (XLV) left the top 3#2 → #6 of 11#2→#6
  • ▲ Top 3 entryUtilities (XLU) entered the top 3#4 → #2 of 11#4→#2
  • ▼ OutflowRapid outflow — Healthcare dropped 4 rank(s) this week#2 → #6 of 11#2→#6

Today's briefing & event risk

  • 10-28 2:00 PM ETFed Interest Rate Decision: 4% actual vs 4% forecast, prior 4% (in line)
  • 10-28 2:30 PM ETFOMC Press Conference
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETAdvance GDP q/q (forecast 3.2%, prior 1.5%)
▶Show all 4 macro events & seasonal context
  • 10-29 8:30 AM ETCore PCE Price Index m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%)
Next 4 weeks · Oct 28–Nov 25up 13/19 yrs · avg +1.4%
Today to Dec 31up 12/19 yrs · avg +2.6%

Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

+6%
 2010
+2%
 2014
 
−7%2018
 
−2%2022

Long bonds (TLT) +4.2% over 20 days — yields falling ↓

Sector scoreboard & internals

ranked by 1-month return · rank change vs last week / month · top-10 holdings breadth and earnings

1 week

  • 1Energy+0.4%
  • 2Utilities+1.2%
  • 3Consumer Staples−0.3%
  • 4Consumer Discretionary−0.2%
  • 5Materials+1.1%
  • 6Healthcare+0.4%
  • 7Financials+0.2%
  • 8Real Estate+0.2%
  • 9Industrials+0.1%
  • 10Technology+1.3%
  • 11Communication Services−5.3%

1 month (the ranking)

  • 1Energy+11.2%
  • 2Utilities+7.0%
  • 3Consumer Staples+6.1%
  • 4Consumer Discretionary+5.7%
  • 5Materials+5.6%
  • 6Healthcare+5.3%
  • 7Financials+3.9%
  • 8Real Estate+1.9%
  • 9Industrials−0.4%
  • 10Technology−1.8%
  • 11Communication Services−7.5%

Rotation map · week against month

LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekEnergy (XLE): +11.2% month, +0.4% weekXLEUtilities (XLU): +7.0% month, +1.2% weekXLUConsumer Staples (XLP): +6.1% month, -0.3% weekXLPConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +5.7% month, -0.2% weekXLYMaterials (XLB): +5.6% month, +1.1% weekXLBHealthcare (XLV): +5.3% month, +0.4% weekXLVFinancials (XLF): +3.9% month, +0.2% weekXLFReal Estate (XLRE): +1.9% month, +0.2% weekXLREIndustrials (XLI): -0.4% month, +0.1% weekXLITechnology (XLK): -1.8% month, +1.3% weekXLKCommunication Services (XLC): -7.5% month, -5.3% weekXLC
#SectorΔ wk / moPhase & signal1D1W1M3M6MRel volvs 200DBreadthEarningsNext 4 wks
1Energy XLE— / ↑2MomentumLong+0.35%+0.4%+11.2%+16.7%+14.8%0.87+17.0%8/10 · 7/104 reporting (Oct 30–3)7/19 yrs · +0.2%
2Utilities XLU↑2 / ↑9MomentumLong-0.84%+1.2%+7.0%-5.4%-9.3%0.6-2.8%8/10 · 7/103 reporting (Oct 29–30)7/19 yrs · -0.7%
3Consumer Staples XLP— / ↑2MomentumLong-0.36%-0.3%+6.1%-0.6%+3.0%0.94+3.8%9/10 · 3/104 reporting (Oct 29–30)10/19 yrs · +0.6%
4Consumer Discretionary XLY↑1 / ↑3MomentumLong-0.10%-0.2%+5.7%+3.3%-2.5%0.89-0.2%8/10 · 6/105 reporting (Oct 28–4)10/19 yrs · +0.2%
5Materials XLB↑2 / ↑4MomentumLong+0.15%+1.1%+5.6%+0.2%+0.8%0.86+3.3%6/10 · 5/103 reporting (Oct 29–4)8/19 yrs · +0.3%
6Healthcare XLV⚡↓4 / ↓2MomentumLong+0.30%+0.4%+5.3%+8.1%+23.1%1.03+11.5%8/10 · 6/104 reporting (Oct 29–3)10/19 yrs · +0.5%
7Financials XLF↓1 / ↑1MomentumLong+0.45%+0.2%+3.9%-1.0%+7.7%0.76+2.9%8/10 · 6/102 reporting (Oct 29–2)11/19 yrs · -0.3%
8Real Estate XLRE— / ↑2DistributionAvoid-0.73%+0.2%+1.9%-8.3%-5.1%1.09-2.4%7/10 · 6/102 reporting (Oct 29–2)6/10 yrs · -0.4%
9Industrials XLI— / ↓3DistributionAvoid+0.34%+0.1%-0.4%-4.6%-3.5%1.09-1.6%3/10 · 5/103 reporting (Oct 29–4)14/19 yrs · +1.1%
10Technology XLK— / ↓9DistributionAvoid+0.80%+1.3%-1.8%+14.7%+19.8%0.88+9.3%9/10 · 9/103 reporting (Nov 2–3)6/19 yrs · -0.5%
11Communication Services XLC— / ↓9DistributionAvoid-0.42%-5.3%-7.5%-5.8%-11.5%1.27-8.3%0/9 · 1/9—4/7 yrs · +0.1%
As posted on X (3)+

Close recap

6:07 PM ET

🔔 Close — Wed, Oct 28

SPY +0.34% · QQQ +0.59% · IWM +0.40% Leaders: Tech +0.8%, Financials +0.4% Laggards: Utilities -0.8%, Real Estate -0.7% After hours: $GOOGL -10.9% (miss) · MSFT +3.5% (beat) Tomorrow: GDP & PCE 8:30 · AMZN, LLY, MA report
Close recap card 1

Divergence watch

6:15 PM ET

👀 Divergence — Wed, Oct 28

$ORCL +10.54% while SPY +0.34% · QQQ +0.59% Moved against SPY 2 of the last 10 sessions 20-day correlation to QQQ: 0.63 Also: META -1.24%
Divergence watch card 1

Money flow

5:29 PM ET

🔄 Money flow — Wed, Oct 28

In: Materials #5 (+2 wk), Utilities #2 (+2 wk) Out: Healthcare #6 (-4 wk), Financials #7 (-1 wk) Leader: Energy #1, +11.2% this month Rotation favors Energy, Utilities, Consumer Staples — Energy leads at +11.2%/month.
Money flow card 1

Get the next call by email — free