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Market report

Friday, October 23, 2026

← 2026-10-22All days2026-10-26 →

The Hub's call

Made at 9:00 AM ET, after the 8:30 data

BEARISH· medium confidence✓ Right — SPY closed −0.52%

Market remains under pressure as tech weakness dominates and VIX spikes.

Risk-off premarket, rising VIX, and tech distribution confirm a bearish stance despite neutral sector breadth.

The session is likely to remain volatile as tech-heavy indices face selling pressure while yields and oil rise. Focus on defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples for relative strength while avoiding tech breakouts until a clear reversal occurs.

Macro read: Rising yields and oil prices are pressuring tech and transports, while a VIX at 20.04 signals increased risk aversion. Gold is flat, indicating a lack of clear safe-haven direction beyond the dollar.

The plan

If / then, and the levels it hangs on

  • IfSPY holds 760.85 support → Look for a potential bounce toward the 764.28 pivot.
  • IfQQQ fails to hold 699.10 → Expect further downside volatility in tech-heavy names.
IndexSupportPivotResistancePrior lowPrior high
SPY760.85764.28767.39761.17767.71
QQQ699.10707.27712.63701.90715.43
IWM275.01276.15277.80274.49277.28

Where money is moving

The Hub's sector and industry rotation ranks

Rotation favors Energy, Utilities, Consumer Staples — Energy leads at +10.8%/month. Key risk: Communication Services deteriorating (-7.4%/month).

  • ▲Utilities (XLU) entered the top 3 → #2 (was #4)
  • ▼Communication Services (XLC) entered the bottom 3 → #11 (was #9)
  • ▼Healthcare (XLV) left the top 3 → #4 (was #3)
  • ▲Real Estate (XLRE) recovered from the bottom → #8 (was #10)

Tailwinds

  • Consumer Staples — Leading sector with accelerating momentum.
  • Energy — Benefiting from rising oil prices.
  • Utilities — Strong relative strength and recent rotation into the top 3.

Headwinds

  • Technology — Weakest sector in distribution phase.
  • Tech breakouts — Tech is in a distribution phase and prone to failure.
  • Early morning gaps — High probability of reversal in choppy regimes.

Leaders inside the leading groups

Consumer Staples (XLP) — KO (RS 82, +8.8% 1M) · PM (RS 76, +7.0% 1M) · MNST (RS 76, +7.2% 1M) · CL (RS 72, +11.8% 1M) · MO (RS 68, +10.6% 1M)

RS: relative strength against the market, 1–99.

Market regime

Trend state at the close

SPY

Recovery

1M −0.9% · below its 50-day (−0.8%)

QQQ

Recovery

1M −5.0% · below its 50-day (−2.9%)

IWM

Downtrend

1M −2.1% · below its 50-day (−2.6%)

DIA

Bull Trend

1M +1.7% · above its 50-day (+0.2%)

Breadth: 6 of 11 sectors above their 200-day average.

Track record

Last 18 scored calls

72%

13 of 18 calls right

Bullish / bearish: 6/8

Neutral / choppy: 7/10

How it's scored: bullish is right when SPY closes up, bearish when it closes down, neutral or choppy when SPY closes within ±0.5%. Every call is shown, misses included.

Sector scoreboard

ranked by 1-month return · this week alongside · the rotation map

1 week

  • 1Energy+1.6%
  • 2Utilities+0.8%
  • 3Consumer Staples+0.7%
  • 4Healthcare+1.4%
  • 5Materials+0.8%
  • 6Consumer Discretionary+0.6%
  • 7Financials+0.7%
  • 8Real Estate+1.0%
  • 9Industrials−1.9%
  • 10Technology−0.1%
  • 11Communication Services−4.4%

1 month (the ranking)

  • 1Energy+10.8%
  • 2Utilities+8.1%
  • 3Consumer Staples+8.0%
  • 4Healthcare+5.5%
  • 5Materials+3.3%
  • 6Consumer Discretionary+2.5%
  • 7Financials+2.5%
  • 8Real Estate+2.2%
  • 9Industrials−2.5%
  • 10Technology−5.9%
  • 11Communication Services−7.4%

Rotation map · week against month

LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekEnergy (XLE): +10.8% month, +1.6% weekXLEUtilities (XLU): +8.1% month, +0.8% weekXLUConsumer Staples (XLP): +8.0% month, +0.7% weekXLPHealthcare (XLV): +5.5% month, +1.4% weekXLVMaterials (XLB): +3.3% month, +0.8% weekXLBConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +2.5% month, +0.6% weekXLYFinancials (XLF): +2.5% month, +0.7% weekXLFReal Estate (XLRE): +2.2% month, +1.0% weekXLREIndustrials (XLI): -2.5% month, -1.9% weekXLITechnology (XLK): -5.9% month, -0.1% weekXLKCommunication Services (XLC): -7.4% month, -4.4% weekXLC

Today's briefing & event risk

Regime NEUTRAL: 8/11 sectors leading, 2 weakening or lagging. VIX 20.0. Premarket risk off (avg -0.48%).

Key risk: Watch VIX for a spike above 25. · Options focus: SPY at-the-money options for directional exposure with defined risk.

Next 4 weeks · Oct 23–Nov 20up 13/19 yrs · avg +1.0%
Today to Dec 31up 15/19 yrs · avg +3.1%

Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

+6%
 2010
+5%
 2014
 
−7%2018
+2%
 2022

Long bonds (TLT) +2.5% over 20 days — yields falling ↓

The full rotation report

Trend: NEUTRAL / SELECTIVEVIX 19.45 · MODERATE (15–20)· 6/11 sectors above 200 EMA

Rotation favors Energy, Utilities, Consumer Staples — Energy leads at +10.8%/month. Key risk: Communication Services deteriorating (-7.4%/month).

Outright calls/puts or debit spreads both work

Market regimePrice1D1W1M3Mvs 50Dvs 200Dvs 21WRegime
S&P 500 SPY$759.97-0.52%-0.4%-0.9%+2.9%-0.8%+3.4%+0.7%Recovery
Nasdaq 100 QQQ$704.4-0.01%-0.8%-5.0%+3.0%-2.9%+2.3%-1.0%Recovery
Russell 2000 IWM$275.75-0.33%+2.0%-2.1%-5.3%-2.6%-0.9%-2.9%Downtrend
Dow Jones DIA$521.37-1.24%+0.4%+1.7%+0.5%+0.2%+2.7%+0.7%Bull Trend
ARK Innovation ARKK$81.99+0.16%+0.4%-10.6%+14.1%-3.6%+1.1%-0.5%Recovery

Rotation alerts & money flow

  • ▲ Top 3 entryUtilities (XLU) entered the top 3#4 → #2 of 11#4→#2
  • ▼ OutflowCommunication Services (XLC) entered the bottom 3#9 → #11 of 11#9→#11
  • ▼ Left top 3Healthcare (XLV) left the top 3#3 → #4 of 11#3→#4
  • ▲ InflowReal Estate (XLRE) recovered from the bottom#10 → #8 of 11#10→#8

Today's briefing & event risk

▶Show all 0 macro events & seasonal context
    Next 4 weeks · Oct 23–Nov 20up 13/19 yrs · avg +1.0%
    Today to Dec 31up 15/19 yrs · avg +3.1%

    Midterm years, same stretch · only 4 — small sample

    +6%
     2010
    +5%
     2014
     
    −7%2018
    +2%
     2022

    Long bonds (TLT) +2.5% over 20 days — yields falling ↓

    Sector scoreboard & internals

    ranked by 1-month return · rank change vs last week / month · top-10 holdings breadth and earnings

    1 week

    • 1Energy+1.6%
    • 2Utilities+0.8%
    • 3Consumer Staples+0.7%
    • 4Healthcare+1.4%
    • 5Materials+0.8%
    • 6Consumer Discretionary+0.6%
    • 7Financials+0.7%
    • 8Real Estate+1.0%
    • 9Industrials−1.9%
    • 10Technology−0.1%
    • 11Communication Services−4.4%

    1 month (the ranking)

    • 1Energy+10.8%
    • 2Utilities+8.1%
    • 3Consumer Staples+8.0%
    • 4Healthcare+5.5%
    • 5Materials+3.3%
    • 6Consumer Discretionary+2.5%
    • 7Financials+2.5%
    • 8Real Estate+2.2%
    • 9Industrials−2.5%
    • 10Technology−5.9%
    • 11Communication Services−7.4%

    Rotation map · week against month

    LeadingImprovingLaggingWeakening1 month →↑ 1 weekEnergy (XLE): +10.8% month, +1.6% weekXLEUtilities (XLU): +8.1% month, +0.8% weekXLUConsumer Staples (XLP): +8.0% month, +0.7% weekXLPHealthcare (XLV): +5.5% month, +1.4% weekXLVMaterials (XLB): +3.3% month, +0.8% weekXLBConsumer Discretionary (XLY): +2.5% month, +0.6% weekXLYFinancials (XLF): +2.5% month, +0.7% weekXLFReal Estate (XLRE): +2.2% month, +1.0% weekXLREIndustrials (XLI): -2.5% month, -1.9% weekXLITechnology (XLK): -5.9% month, -0.1% weekXLKCommunication Services (XLC): -7.4% month, -4.4% weekXLC
    #SectorΔ wk / moPhase & signal1D1W1M3M6MRel volvs 200DBreadthEarningsNext 4 wks
    1Energy XLE— / ↑1MomentumLong+2.60%+1.6%+10.8%+16.3%+22.1%1.2+19.2%10/10 · 8/104 reporting (Oct 27–30)7/19 yrs · +0.3%
    2Utilities XLU↑2 / ↑8MomentumLong-0.72%+0.8%+8.1%-8.1%-7.9%0.52-2.6%8/10 · 8/104 reporting (Oct 28–30)7/19 yrs · -0.7%
    3Consumer Staples XLP↓1 / ↑2MomentumLong-1.92%+0.7%+8.0%+4.9%+7.2%1.41+5.6%10/10 · 9/105 reporting (Oct 27–30)10/19 yrs · +0.3%
    4Healthcare XLV↓1 / —MomentumLong-1.11%+1.4%+5.5%+10.3%+25.0%0.89+11.7%9/10 · 7/104 reporting (Oct 28–30)10/19 yrs · +0.3%
    5Materials XLB↑1 / ↑2MomentumLong-0.74%+0.8%+3.3%+0.1%-0.9%0.73+2.4%7/10 · 6/106 reporting (Oct 26–29)10/19 yrs · +0.3%
    6Consumer Discretionary XLY↓1 / ↑2MomentumLong-1.66%+0.6%+2.5%+3.4%-4.0%0.89-2.0%8/10 · 6/103 reporting (Oct 28–29)9/19 yrs · +0.1%
    7Financials XLF— / ↓1MomentumLong-1.32%+0.7%+2.5%-0.7%+7.9%0.78+2.7%3/10 · 3/102 reporting (Oct 27–29)11/19 yrs · -0.7%
    8Real Estate XLRE↑2 / ↑1DistributionAvoid+0.12%+1.0%+2.2%-7.4%-2.1%1.19-1.4%6/10 · 6/105 reporting (Oct 26–29)5/10 yrs · -0.6%
    9Industrials XLI↓1 / ↑2DistributionAvoid-1.27%-1.9%-2.5%-9.9%-4.6%0.95-3.8%3/10 · 3/103 reporting (Oct 27–29)14/19 yrs · +1.2%
    10Technology XLK↑1 / ↓9DistributionAvoid+0.49%-0.1%-5.9%+4.2%+14.1%0.84+5.5%4/10 · 2/101 reporting (Oct 28)9/19 yrs · -0.1%
    11Communication Services XLC↓2 / ↓8DistributionAvoid-1.78%-4.4%-7.4%-0.7%-8.9%0.82-6.4%1/9 · 2/93 reporting (Oct 26–28)3/7 yrs · -1.3%

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